Mint News Blog

News, Information, and Commentary on US Mint Products

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Numismatic Gold Coin Price Decrease Possible


Amidst the recent decline in precious metals, the prices of US Mint numismatic gold coins have stubbornly remained at the same levels. This may finally change tomorrow, provided that London Fix prices remain under $1,500.

Since April 28, gold coins covered under the pricing policy have been priced based on the $1,500 to $1,549.99 tier. The US Mint calculates the weekly average gold price based on the London Fix prices from the prior Thursday AM to the current Wednesday AM. If the price falls into a different tier and the Wednesday PM price agrees directionally, then a pricing change will take place.

Prices for the current period are as follows:
May 12 AM 1488.25
May 12 PM 1489.5
May 13 AM 1511
May 13 PM 1505.75
May 16 AM 1495
May 16 PM 1500.75
May 17 AM 1495.5
May 17 PM 1478.5
May 18 AM ?

By my calculations, a price decrease would take place provided that the May 18 London AM fix price is less than $1,535.75 and the London PM fix price is less than $1,500.00. The price of gold is currently around $1,487.00 per ounce, but prices have been volatile recently.

If a pricing adjustment takes place, it would impact the available First Spouse Gold Coins, 2011 Proof Gold Eagles, and 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle. Price changes have generally been made effective around late morning or mid-day on Wednesday.

In addition to reducing the prices for existing products, this week's average will also serve to establish the price for the upcoming 2011 Proof Gold Buffalo, to be released on Thursday.

For the past two weeks, there has been a noticeable slow down in the pace of US Mint numismatic gold coin sales. It's possible that some collectors have been delaying purchases in hopes of a pricing decrease.

As of May 15, the recently released Eliza Johnson First Spouse Gold Coin has sold 2,689 coins across proof and uncirculated options, while the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle has sold a mere 1,335. Proof Gold Eagle sales have also dropped to very low levels.

Coin Update: Full Weekly US Mint Sales Report

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35 Comments:

At May 17, 2011 at 2:41 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the update. I'm carefully going to watch the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle. With all the current, expensive offerings, this one might be a winner if the sales stay a slow creep.

I purchased both the MOH and Army Commemorative partly in the hopes that the mintages stay low.

I love the Buffalo, but might skip it this year in favor of the 2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle.

With the dip in PM prices, I think this is a good buying opportunity. With QE2 ending and the still weak economy (even with a stronger dollar); I think now might be a good time to take a skinny dip and pick up some more.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 2:54 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still expensive to me

 
At May 17, 2011 at 3:33 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

that's mean a lot of returns.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 3:50 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Michael,

This topic gives me a good excuse to ask. Does the reduction in the price of silver affect the AtB numismatic coins the way gold price reduction affects things like gold eagles? Or are the AtBs treated more like the commemorative and silver proof sets where a price increase or reduction would mean changes via the Federal Register?

 
At May 17, 2011 at 3:57 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

it looks like the 5 oz ATB is lightly struck. specially the obverse.

the price of silver up or down will certainly affect the price of ATB. but then the mint set the price of ATB since last year when the silver is around today's price. that is my observation.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 3:58 PM , Anonymous The Dude said...

Thanks agaon Michael. Your Blog Rocks Dude! It looks like Gold and Silver is headed lower. I will wait to buy the 5 Ounce ATB's for ~ $80 each after Silver tanks Dudes!

 
At May 17, 2011 at 6:01 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

If silver tanks, no one would sell their ATB's unless they really really need cash, I wouldn't even if it goes up I'm still not selling, but I'll be buying tsk tsk tsk.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 6:06 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm planning to buy more silver but it seems that the prices on my dealer and online shops is not going down even though the spot is down, it only widen the profit margin for them.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 6:29 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey DUDE,
Why wait if you are so sure.
(ZSL) ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF

 
At May 17, 2011 at 6:36 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

The bullion ATB's will get cheaper if silver goes down further, but it is not clear that the Mint will change the numismatic version prices. If they were going to, they would have lowered the price of Yellowstone. The bullion coins are a decent silver play as the premium is now the same as eagles, if you buy from Provident or Gainesville or some others.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 6:39 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

The spot price of silver right now means almost nothing. Not even a dealer can buy silver at spot, not even in large quantities. supplies are tight, deliveries are delayed, and premiums even on rounds are $3-4 per ounce. Spend another buck an ounce premium and get 2011 bullions for about $200 each.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 7:20 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I will tell you this. until the us mint stops making false press releases. Me and all the people i know will not be buying anything from them.Brilliant unc finish was a flat out lye. I believe them as much as i believe trump. plus their sales figures are totally untrue.

 
At May 17, 2011 at 7:27 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Get yourself a high dollar unc gold eagle with a similar finish.Dont tell me what the finish is, NO SALE

 
At May 17, 2011 at 7:42 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look for yourself, hot springs has a brillant unc finish,which is does not have,yellowstone has a unc finish,whatever that my be

 
At May 17, 2011 at 9:30 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Hot Springs and Yellowstone will of course have the same finish. The vapor blasting blows away a plain old BU finish so take it or leave it. I also like it so much more than that silly inconsistant PL finish on the bullions. IMO

 
At May 18, 2011 at 6:05 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have ordered 4 Yellowstones by using relatives addresses. I will keep all as an investment.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 6:17 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

The "vapor blasting" finish on the "P" coins may be consistant(consistantly dull), but the PL & DMPL bullion coins look 10x better.

The vapor blasting just covers up the imperfections of the strike.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 6:42 AM , Anonymous Sgt. Popper said...

Silver up some today

 
At May 18, 2011 at 7:29 AM , Blogger Mint News Blog said...

"This topic gives me a good excuse to ask. Does the reduction in the price of silver affect the AtB numismatic coins the way gold price reduction affects things like gold eagles? "

The US Mint's flexible pricing policy (which allows weekly changes) only covers specifically listed coins. These are the Gold Eagles, Gold Buffalo, First Spouse Gold Coins, and Platinum Eagles.

All products not specifically listed have pricing established via publication in the Federal Register. The process can take several weeks, which can be problematic in times of volatile prices.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 8:12 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gold numismatic products now on hold for re-pricing (lower).

Yellowstone now +/- 85% gone. I'm surprised by this.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 8:24 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

How do you figure Yellowstone is about 85% gone? I haven't seen anything about it.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 8:34 AM , Blogger G said...

Gold price decrease just occurred on the mint site. Outstanding website. Thanks.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 8:45 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, I believe the changing spot price does affect purchasing/speculating on these "P" coins. However it appears that the coin's design is having an impact on sales. I for one would love to see these coins placed on the "sliding scale"

 
At May 18, 2011 at 9:15 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

It looks as if the Mint jumped the gun on lower gold prices.

Buy the dip.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 9:24 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

"How do you figure Yellowstone is about 85% gone? I haven't seen anything about it."

That's why this is such a great blog. All the info is here (see prev. post on Yellowstone).

First order #374783**
Most recent (as of 11am EST)#375041** 37504100-37478300=25.8K orders in past day. Adjusting down for the normal 2-3k orders for "off peak" days and some order errors 25.8k-2.5k(~10%)=23.3k.

23.3/27=~85% sold

I'm sure this is not completely accurate, but I think it is a good guess based on the available information. A sell-out soon (by this weekend) is also expected based on these numbers.

Any other thoughts on this appreciated.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 10:34 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Web Status on my order : Your order request is on hold (I got in at about 12:15 ET

The Mint has already hit my CC for the two other items in my order. I would prefer a single shipment but let's see what happens and I will post here.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 11:40 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

@ 10:34 AM. The typical sequence for most Mint sales is:

1. Customer hits submit button.
2. Order immediately goes into Suspense Status for initial processing.
3. Within 24-48 hours, order goes into Hold Status while reviewed for "Flags" and processing the CC transaction (and still have the option to cancel).
4. Within 48-96+ hours, order is listed as In Process. (Option to cancel may or may not be available, but still can call to cancel).
5. Closed - Product shipped and purchase order is closed.

Any time during steps 3 and 4, the actual Product can be classified either as Back-Ordered or as In Stock and Reserved. Usually, the Back-Order status is consistent with advanced sales, and will change to In Stock and Reserved 2-3 days before the scheduled release date and/or the ship date.

Returns, to include receiving them, credits for and replacements against, also are documented against your original order number.

Hope this helps. As others have said, other timeframes may indicate a problem that requires a phone call.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 12:39 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would love it if they would do this vapor blasting on a reg silver proof set .

 
At May 18, 2011 at 12:50 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can anyone please tell me what the NGC population report is for each ATB bullion coin at MS69 grade, ER or Regular?

PCGS makes theirs available for free if you check a coins cert number, but NGC doesnt and I don't have a membership. PCGS only shows a few hundred at MS69 for each, so I would really like to know how many NGC graded.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 2:12 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Never fails, buy silver today and the market drops. It will dive tomorrow, just watch..."

I stand corrected.
My fool proof silver market manipulation for the last 2 years has finally been exposed as a farce...

 
At May 18, 2011 at 7:34 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow. Maybe Michael needs to put a program into his blog to remove any ATB comments from a non-ATB thread.

 
At May 18, 2011 at 8:00 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

From my perspective, as long as people provide healthy inputs which related to the subjective (coins, gold, silver, related history, economy...etc), I don't see why not ATB. People can choose to skip those they are not intereted to read though...

 
At May 18, 2011 at 8:08 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe there should be cry-baby filter.

 
At May 19, 2011 at 3:13 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Has anyone ordered or received the unc gold eagle? If so what do you think of it? Is it a burnished finish or truly only like the bullion coin?

 
At May 19, 2011 at 2:55 PM , Blogger David said...

I spoke to the Mint order line today and a very nice rep said the next release is tentatively scheduled for June 7 - Michael, perhaps you can confirm?

 

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