Mint News Blog

News, Information, and Commentary on US Mint Products

Friday, January 21, 2011

Survey Results: Gold and Silver Price Predictions

The latest installment of results for the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey will cover the questions dealing with precious metals prices and predictions about bullion coins. The survey was open from December 31, 2010 until January 9, 2011 and had almost 700 respondents.

Will the price of gold rise or fall in 2011?
Rise 82.78%
Fall 17.22%

The majority of readers at 82.78% believe that the price of gold will rise in 2011.

As a point of comparison, last year's survey asked the same question, and 74.18% of readers believed that gold would rise during 2010.

These readers were correct, with the price of gold rising by $306.25 to close at $1,410.25 (London Fix). This represented the eleventh consecutive year that the price of gold has risen.

Guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $1,655,51

Distribution of Guesses:
Below $1,000 31
$1,000 - $1,200 46
$1,201 - $1,400 26
$1,401 - $1,600 144
$1,601 - $1,800 193
$1,801 - $2,000 88
$2,001 - $2,200 14
$2,200 - $2,400 5
Above $2,400 15

Readers were asked to guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011. The guesses spanned a wide range, with the majority calling for a higher price. Taking an average of all guesses yields $1,655.61. This would represent an annual gain of $245.36 or 17.40%.

Last year's survey asked readers to predict the closing price of gold on December 31, 2010. The average guess was $1,375.13, not too far from the actual closing price of $1,410.25.

Will the price of silver rise or fall in 2011?

Rise 81.62%
Fall 18.38%

The majority of readers believed that the price of silver would rise during the year, at 81.62% of the vote.

Guess the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $45.22

Distribution of Guesses:
Below $20.00 28
$20.00 - $25.00 62
$25.01 - $30.00 23
$30.01 - $35.00 91
$35.01 - $40.00 152
$40.01 - $45.00 118
$45.01 - $50.00 50
$50.00 - $55.00 32
$55.01 - $60.00 16
Above $60.00 29

There were 601 guesses submitted by readers for the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011. The average was $45.22, which would represent an increase of $14.59 or 47.63% from the closing price on December 31, 2010.

During 2010, the price of silver had risen by $13.64 per ounce to close at $30.63 (London Fix), representing an annual gain of 80.28%.

Will the number of Silver Eagle bullion coins sold in 2011 rise or fall compared to the number sold in 2010?

Rise 61.07%
Fall 38.93%

For three consecutive years, the US Mint has achieved record breaking annual sales for the one ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coins. Total annual sales for the past three years have been 19,583,000 in 2008, 28,766,500 in 2009, and 34,662,500 in 2010.

Survey results show that 61.07% of readers believe the Silver Eagle bullion coins will achieve higher sales this year. The US Mint has already sold 4,724,000 ounces worth of Silver Eagles after just three weeks. If sales continue at even half this pace for the remainder of the year, another new annual record will be established.

By law, the US Mint is required to produce Silver Eagle bullion coins in quantities necessary to meet public demand. However, in practice, the number of coins has been limited to the number of planchets that could be acquired from suppliers and the requirements from other mandatory silver coin programs. The US Mint is currently rationing sales of Silver Eagle bullion coins.

How many 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will the US Mint produce across all designs?

165,000 or less 20.87%
165,001 to 300,000 33.91%
300,001 to 500,000 27.25%
500,001 to 1,000,000 11.74%
More than 1,000,000 6.23%

The United States Mint initially indicated that they intended to strike 500,000 of the 2010 ATB Silver Bullion Coins, divided equally amongst the five different designs. The Mint later announced that the bullion mintage would only be 165,000 in total, or 33,000 coins per design. This incredibly low mintage and the complications of distribution have kept the coins difficult to acquire and secondary market prices high.

Most readers predict that mintage levels for the 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will remain low, especially when compared to the massive amount of Silver Eagles struck each year. By law, the US Mint is required to produce and issue the ATB Silver Bullion coins in quantities that the Secretary of the Treasury "determines to be appropriate."

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22 Comments:

At January 21, 2011 at 11:08 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Michael, thanks for digging through the survey results in your last few posts- it's been fun.

Nick

 
At January 22, 2011 at 8:32 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great work, how do you find the time? It must have something to do with your great love of the hobby. Tim

 
At January 22, 2011 at 6:03 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, thanks for the painstaking effort it must be to go through all the surveys!

 
At January 23, 2011 at 7:20 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

While organizing my stuff this weekend I noticed I have stuff like poor condition silver certificates, rolls of presidential dollars, a few rolls of 2004, 2005 quarters, nickels, a pack of $2 bills, a previous issue $100 bill. This stuff will never be worth more than face value. So I plan to cash it in at the bank and buy silver eagles. Those at least will go up with the price of silver.

 
At January 23, 2011 at 7:47 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well thought out to the above commenter. I too have some clad junk that i've had for a while. The only thing I'd watch for is a pullback on silver to around $20. Then buy all you can.

 
At January 23, 2011 at 9:06 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny, started the same process of cleaning out the dead weight myself a few days ago.

 
At January 23, 2011 at 9:10 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

A pull back on silver at 20 is not going to happen IMO. The latest pull back on silver is probably the best chance you will see to get silver at lower prices.

 
At January 23, 2011 at 10:27 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I too believe silver is in a down trend, at least for the short term. Although silver at $20/ounce would probably carry a 5-6 dollar premium. IMO ---GO BEARS---

 
At January 23, 2011 at 12:17 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

No Bears defense. GO GREEN BAY !!!!

 
At January 23, 2011 at 12:21 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

No Bears offense. GO GREEN BAY !!!

 
At January 23, 2011 at 3:38 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well done, a year from now investors will be kicking themselves for not picking up more Silver at today's prices.

 
At January 23, 2011 at 6:01 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

THOSE BIG COINS ARE THE FUNNIEST LOOKING NON COINS I HAVE EVER SEEN. WHAT ARE PEOPLE THINKING THAT BUY THOSE PRODCTS

 
At January 23, 2011 at 6:28 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's just it they aren't thinking at all. If they were thinking then they would realize that silver will have to hit over 100.00 an ounce for them to even break even. Ignorance is bliss and I'll keep buying silver at melt and laugh at all of them the whole time.

 
At January 23, 2011 at 9:26 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm glad you didn't do a survey on coin slabbing or the nuts would have come out.

 
At January 24, 2011 at 6:08 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I sent a check to FideliTrade on January 6 for the ATB 5 oz. silver "coins." I haven't heard back from them yet and my check still hasn't cleared my bank. Does that mean I didn't get the "coins" or does their process just take that long?

I'm guessing they have already sold their allotment and that my check will be returned uncashed at some point. Does anyone know for sure? Thanks.

The Outsider

 
At January 24, 2011 at 6:40 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would love to see a survey on coin slabbing to show the increase in scamming awareness by the public.

 
At January 24, 2011 at 6:48 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm guessing they have already sold their allotment and that my check will be returned uncashed at some point. Does anyone know for sure? Thanks.


Fidelitrade posted on their website that they had multiple orders from the same household and have put more back on the market. That should mean all those in the first wave should get a set. They are slow in processing the orders.

 
At January 24, 2011 at 7:18 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, the average London Fix price of gold this period is $1,348. If the fixes stay below $1,350 and the Wed PM fix stays below too, then we might actually see a price DECREASE at the Mint this week. Wow, how long has it been since THAT happened? :)

 
At January 24, 2011 at 7:33 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where's "Pop, pop, pop"??? We haven't seen that joker for a while! I miss him and want him back. Every time he claimed bubble, we kept going up more.

 
At January 24, 2011 at 8:15 AM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

It has been a while since the big boys betting on shorts with J.P. Morgan has made any money. Last week they did well and the buddy system is showing that it is still alive and well with price fixing.

The US Mint tried to do their own version of price fixing with the ATBs and AP fiasco along with their sales killing price increases. Then the APs and their buddies went all out on their own price fixing on the ATBs in the end.

All this price fixing just to make sure the rich get richer will never go away. It is the nature of the beast. The only thing all these rich price fixing people fail to realize is the fact that it is way more transparent then they think. And what it causes is a slow down in sales and demand.

Now the only thing they have to hopefully rely on is speculators who believe the spot prices will still go up. So the determination of lower quantities with higher prices may very well be the death of this scenario. Because taking out the middle class public with higher prices and lower quantity will only drop over all profits in the end. It is really simple economics.

But greed seems to rule these days. And so goes a great hobby that used to be affordable for all walks of life.

 
At January 24, 2011 at 8:25 AM , Anonymous ATB 5 OZ said...

@
sent a check to FideliTrade on January 6 for the ATB 5 oz. silver "coins." I haven't heard back from them yet and my check still hasn't cleared my bank. Does that mean I didn't get the "coins" or does their process just take that long?

-----------------------

I just talked to them and they told me that I will be getting a e mail this week and my check would be cashed this week. The coins will come in the middle of Feb.
They received my order about the time yours got there
I'm was told today i will be getting one

 
At January 24, 2011 at 3:45 PM , Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just a note on Fidelitrade ATBs: I sent in personal check by USPS express on the day of the announcement. My acceptance just came in. So they are still in stock and going through procedures.

 

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