Survey Results: Gold and Silver Price Predictions

The latest installment of results for the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey will cover the questions dealing with precious metals prices and predictions about bullion coins. The survey was open from December 31, 2010 until January 9, 2011 and had almost 700 respondents.

Will the price of gold rise or fall in 2011?

Rise	82.78%
Fall	17.22%

The majority of readers at 82.78% believe that the price of gold will rise in 2011.

As a point of comparison, last year's survey asked the same question, and 74.18% of readers believed that gold would rise during 2010.

These readers were correct, with the price of gold rising by $306.25 to close at $1,410.25 (London Fix). This represented the eleventh consecutive year that the price of gold has risen.

Guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $1,655,51

Distribution of Guesses:

Below $1,000	31
$1,000 - $1,200	46
$1,201 - $1,400	26
$1,401 - $1,600	144
$1,601 - $1,800	193
$1,801 - $2,000	88
$2,001 - $2,200	14
$2,200 - $2,400	5
Above $2,400	15

Readers were asked to guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011. The guesses spanned a wide range, with the majority calling for a higher price. Taking an average of all guesses yields $1,655.61. This would represent an annual gain of $245.36 or 17.40%.

Last year's survey asked readers to predict the closing price of gold on December 31, 2010. The average guess was $1,375.13, not too far from the actual closing price of $1,410.25.

Will the price of silver rise or fall in 2011?

Rise	81.62%
Fall	18.38%

The majority of readers believed that the price of silver would rise during the year, at 81.62% of the vote.

Guess the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $45.22

Distribution of Guesses:

Below $20.00	28
$20.00 - $25.00	62
$25.01 - $30.00	23
$30.01 - $35.00	91
$35.01 - $40.00	152
$40.01 - $45.00	118
$45.01 - $50.00	50
$50.00 - $55.00	32
$55.01 - $60.00	16
Above $60.00	29

There were 601 guesses submitted by readers for the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011. The average was $45.22, which would represent an increase of $14.59 or 47.63% from the closing price on December 31, 2010.

During 2010, the price of silver had risen by $13.64 per ounce to close at $30.63 (London Fix), representing an annual gain of 80.28%.

Will the number of Silver Eagle bullion coins sold in 2011 rise or fall compared to the number sold in 2010?

Rise	61.07%
Fall	38.93%

For three consecutive years, the US Mint has achieved record breaking annual sales for the one ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coins. Total annual sales for the past three years have been 19,583,000 in 2008, 28,766,500 in 2009, and 34,662,500 in 2010.

Survey results show that 61.07% of readers believe the Silver Eagle bullion coins will achieve higher sales this year. The US Mint has already sold 4,724,000 ounces worth of Silver Eagles after just three weeks. If sales continue at even half this pace for the remainder of the year, another new annual record will be established.

By law, the US Mint is required to produce Silver Eagle bullion coins in quantities necessary to meet public demand. However, in practice, the number of coins has been limited to the number of planchets that could be acquired from suppliers and the requirements from other mandatory silver coin programs. The US Mint is currently rationing sales of Silver Eagle bullion coins.

How many 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will the US Mint produce across all designs?

165,000 or less	20.87%
165,001 to 300,000	33.91%
300,001 to 500,000	27.25%
500,001 to 1,000,000	11.74%
More than 1,000,000	6.23%

The United States Mint initially indicated that they intended to strike 500,000 of the 2010 ATB Silver Bullion Coins, divided equally amongst the five different designs. The Mint later announced that the bullion mintage would only be 165,000 in total, or 33,000 coins per design. This incredibly low mintage and the complications of distribution have kept the coins difficult to acquire and secondary market prices high.

Most readers predict that mintage levels for the 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will remain low, especially when compared to the massive amount of Silver Eagles struck each year. By law, the US Mint is required to produce and issue the ATB Silver Bullion coins in quantities that the Secretary of the Treasury "determines to be appropriate."