Survey Results: Bold Predictions

Coverage of the Mint News Blog survey will conclude with this post. The final question of the survey asked readers to make bold prediction for something completely unexpected that will happen in 2011 related to the US Mint or coins.

Some of last year's bold predictions proved to be surprisingly accurate. Will the same be true for this year?

I picked out a representative selection of this year's predictions, which are republished below:

"Suspension of American Silver Eagles due to shortage of blanks - will occur by May, 2011."

"The US Congress will vote to end the First Spouse Gold Coin program because of limited demand due to the high price of gold."

"They'll cut back even further on basic commemorative coins and basic coin sets for beginner collectors to concentrate on the 'big profit' items. A long-term mistake. Entry level collectors can't afford the high-priced items."

"ATB bullion prices on the secondary market will drop."

"Mint will introduce a high relief American Silver Eagle 25th Anniversary Coin, limited edition for collectors."

"Silver and Gold prices will spike, then crash moderately back just below (~20%) current levels."

"The government issues steel pennies and 5 cent pieces."

"The US Mint will suspend an Authorized Purchaser for violating the rules for distributing the 2010 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins."

"Less than 100,000 Proof ASE will be produced. End of series."

"$2 coin."

"I'll finally find a 2010 quarter in circulation."

"The mint WILL make fractional Gold Buffaloes and American Gold Eagles. The palladium coin will not be minted. There will be a new 'error coin' in 2011."

"Mint will seek legislative authority to produce half ounce silver bullion coins"

"New high relief silver coin similar to Australia's."

"The US mint will start making the planchets for the Silver Eagles at West Point."

"The number of US Mint products will decrease by a third."

"2011 Proof Gold Buffalo early sell out."

"The Mint will suspend sales of the silver ATB proof sets and the annual silver proof sets when the price of silver at melt exceeds the established mint price."

"The mint will start selling Silver Eagles directly to the collectors."

"2011 and beyond... The satin 2010 Lincoln cents will become the key date of the entire shield-type series, which will last until 2059. It will be the only satin finish of the entire series and probably the lowest mintage. The 2010 satin finish unc set will probably sell a relatively high 1.5 million sets by 12/31/2011, even with this, the 2010 lincoln cent will command a premium. Ditto the satin finish ATB quarters (only offered in 2010) which will command a premium and be the key dates of the entire ATB series from 2010 to 2021, even if there mintage is 1.5 million."

"The U.S. Mint will introduce a customer loyalty program that offers a special silver American Buffalo coin to collectors that purchase over $2,011 worth of coins in 2011."

"One of the commemorative dollars will have a record minimum mintage for the past 10 years."

"The U.S. mint will begin production of 1/20th ounce gold coins."

"The mint will not sell the numismatic version of the 5 oz coins."

"A denomination for circulation will be eliminated."

"The US Mint will release the 2011-W burnished Silver Eagle and mintage will be less than 100,000."

"Palladium blanks will not be available to meet US Mint customer demand for the new 1 oz palladium coin."

"The U.S. Mint will produce Rhodium coins."

"The palladium coins will have an extremely low mintage of less than 10,000 causing the secondary market to drive the prices up ten fold."

"New Director of the US Mint quits before year end."

"US Mint will delay and then cease selling the Gold Eagles and Buffaloes."

"A genuine 1964-D Peace dollar will surface."

"The 1933 St. Gaudens Double Eagles will become legal to own."

"The number of First Spouse Gold Coins will be limited to 5,000 of each."

"Anyone who wants an ATB 5 oz silver coin will be able to actually get one!"

"Sales of silver coins of all varieties - ATB, Eagles, etc. - will be suspended due to lack of physical silver."

"Sales will drop off more than 50%, due to price."

"Silver will be rationed... again."

"The law will change and allow the Mint to sell 5 ounce silver ATB coins directly to the public."

"Falling precious metals prices results in dumping of previously 'rare' coins."

"The Mint will ask Congress for permission to stop making pennies. The issue will not be resolved in 2011."

"There will finally be a move to eliminate the dollar banknote."

"The US Mint will develop a process for fairly distributing products, giving more people an opportunity to obtain desirable products."

"Change the design of the dime."

"The Mint's website will not crash when the 5 oz coins go on sale. Sellout in less than 2 hours."

"The new Mint Director will fulfill Edmund Moy's statement of bringing about a neo-renaissance in coin design and we will see some of the greatest designs in our history."

Survey Results: Gold and Silver Price Predictions

The latest installment of results for the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey will cover the questions dealing with precious metals prices and predictions about bullion coins. The survey was open from December 31, 2010 until January 9, 2011 and had almost 700 respondents.

Will the price of gold rise or fall in 2011?

Rise	82.78%
Fall	17.22%

The majority of readers at 82.78% believe that the price of gold will rise in 2011.

As a point of comparison, last year's survey asked the same question, and 74.18% of readers believed that gold would rise during 2010.

These readers were correct, with the price of gold rising by $306.25 to close at $1,410.25 (London Fix). This represented the eleventh consecutive year that the price of gold has risen.

Guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $1,655,51

Distribution of Guesses:

Below $1,000	31
$1,000 - $1,200	46
$1,201 - $1,400	26
$1,401 - $1,600	144
$1,601 - $1,800	193
$1,801 - $2,000	88
$2,001 - $2,200	14
$2,200 - $2,400	5
Above $2,400	15

Readers were asked to guess the closing price of gold on December 31, 2011. The guesses spanned a wide range, with the majority calling for a higher price. Taking an average of all guesses yields $1,655.61. This would represent an annual gain of $245.36 or 17.40%.

Last year's survey asked readers to predict the closing price of gold on December 31, 2010. The average guess was $1,375.13, not too far from the actual closing price of $1,410.25.

Will the price of silver rise or fall in 2011?

Rise	81.62%
Fall	18.38%

The majority of readers believed that the price of silver would rise during the year, at 81.62% of the vote.

Guess the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011.

Average Guess: $45.22

Distribution of Guesses:

Below $20.00	28
$20.00 - $25.00	62
$25.01 - $30.00	23
$30.01 - $35.00	91
$35.01 - $40.00	152
$40.01 - $45.00	118
$45.01 - $50.00	50
$50.00 - $55.00	32
$55.01 - $60.00	16
Above $60.00	29

There were 601 guesses submitted by readers for the closing price of silver on December 31, 2011. The average was $45.22, which would represent an increase of $14.59 or 47.63% from the closing price on December 31, 2010.

During 2010, the price of silver had risen by $13.64 per ounce to close at $30.63 (London Fix), representing an annual gain of 80.28%.

Will the number of Silver Eagle bullion coins sold in 2011 rise or fall compared to the number sold in 2010?

Rise	61.07%
Fall	38.93%

For three consecutive years, the US Mint has achieved record breaking annual sales for the one ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coins. Total annual sales for the past three years have been 19,583,000 in 2008, 28,766,500 in 2009, and 34,662,500 in 2010.

Survey results show that 61.07% of readers believe the Silver Eagle bullion coins will achieve higher sales this year. The US Mint has already sold 4,724,000 ounces worth of Silver Eagles after just three weeks. If sales continue at even half this pace for the remainder of the year, another new annual record will be established.

By law, the US Mint is required to produce Silver Eagle bullion coins in quantities necessary to meet public demand. However, in practice, the number of coins has been limited to the number of planchets that could be acquired from suppliers and the requirements from other mandatory silver coin programs. The US Mint is currently rationing sales of Silver Eagle bullion coins.

How many 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will the US Mint produce across all designs?

165,000 or less	20.87%
165,001 to 300,000	33.91%
300,001 to 500,000	27.25%
500,001 to 1,000,000	11.74%
More than 1,000,000	6.23%

The United States Mint initially indicated that they intended to strike 500,000 of the 2010 ATB Silver Bullion Coins, divided equally amongst the five different designs. The Mint later announced that the bullion mintage would only be 165,000 in total, or 33,000 coins per design. This incredibly low mintage and the complications of distribution have kept the coins difficult to acquire and secondary market prices high.

Most readers predict that mintage levels for the 2011 America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins will remain low, especially when compared to the massive amount of Silver Eagles struck each year. By law, the US Mint is required to produce and issue the ATB Silver Bullion coins in quantities that the Secretary of the Treasury "determines to be appropriate."

Survey Results: Biggest Diappointment, Most Anticipated 2011 US Mint Product

Almost 700 Mint News Blog readers responded to a year-end survey on United States Mint products and coins. The second post covering the survey results will discuss the biggest disappointment of 2010, the most anticipated product of 2011, and the American Palladium Eagle.

What was the biggest disappointment or frustration of 2010?

Difficulty obtaining America the Beautiful 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins	38.08%
Higher prices for US Mint annual sets and other products	21.37%
Cancellation of 2010-W Uncirculated Gold and Silver Eagles	16.13%
Design Selections for new or upcoming coins	10.03%
Difficulty finding America the Beautiful Quarters from banks/circulation	8.72%
Other	5.67%

With 38.08% of the vote, the top response was the difficulty obtaining the America the Beautiful 5 oz. Silver Bullion Coins.

For much of the year, anticipation had been running high for this new US Mint bullion product. After a series of delays, the US Mint finally announced that they would begin accepting orders from authorized purchasers on December 6, 2009. Rather than the previously indicated mintage of 100,000 coins per design, the mintage would be a scant 33,000 coins per design.

Ahead of the release date, the prices charged by one of the US Mint's authorized purchasers resulted in widespread complaints. The US Mint responded by halting the program and later relaunching with a set of specific terms and conditions for authorized purchasers. Among other things, the AP's would be limited to a mark up of 10% above acquisition cost, would need to enforce a one per household ordering limit, and would need to make all coins that they acquired available for sale to the public.

Nine out of eleven of the AP's agreed to the terms and ordered their allocations. Unfortunately, despite the steps taken by the Mint, frustration about the situation has continued. Some secondary market sources have managed to acquire dozens or hundreds of the ATB silver bullion coins, raising questions about the distribution. Some AP's are still sitting on their allocations while they either scramble to set up retail sales operations or for other unknown reasons. One AP has indicated that they won't begin sales until the second quarter. The few AP's who have offered their coins for sale have experienced an avalanche of orders, riddled with attempts to get around the household limits.

Coin Update News contributor Louis Golino has just written an article summarizing the current situation and providing his thoughts on the implications. You can read his article here.

The survey option which gathered the second highest number of votes was the higher pricing for US Mint annual sets and other products, with 21.37% of responses. Unfortunately (again), this situation is not getting any better. The US Mint subsequently announced price increases across nearly all product categories for 2011.

The write-in responses from readers who selected "other" included: too many coins being issued, quality of coins within US Mint products, lack of Platinum Eagle bullion coins, the proliferation of derivative products, lack of US Mint communication, the incorrectly sent 2010 Proof Silver Eagle cancellation email, responses indicating "none," and various combinations of the listed options.

Of the scheduled or anticipated US Mint numismatic products to be released in 2011, what are you looking forward to the most?

Numismatic versions of America the Beautiful 5 oz. Silver Coins	37.70%
2011 Proof Silver Eagle	17.47%
2011 Medal of Honor Commemorative Coins	9.32%
2011 U.S. Army Commemorative Coins	8.59%
Other	8.30%
September 11th Commemorative Silver Medal	6.99%
2011-W Uncirculated Gold Eagle	4.51%
2011 Proof Platinum Eagle	4.37%
2011 Proof Gold Eagles	2.77%

Based on survey responses, the most anticipated numismatic product of this year is the numismatic versions of the America the Beautiful 5 oz. Silver Coins. The 2010 coins will carry even lower mintages than the bullion versions at just 27,000 per design. Since they are numismatic products, they will be sold directly by the United States Mint.

Previously, the Mint indicated that sales would begin in the first quarter of 2011. So far, exact dates have not yet been provided, nor has the US Mint announced specific procedures for sales. All of the 2010 and 2011 designs are listed individually on the US Mint's product schedule, suggesting that the coins will be offered individually rather than in sets.

The next most anticipated products were the 2011 Proof Silver Eagle with 17.47% of the vote, followed by the year's two commemorative coin programs featuring the U.S. Army and the Medal of Honor.

The write-in responses for readers who indicated "other" included 2011 America the Beautiful Quarters or related products, 2011 Proof Set, 2011 Mint Set, American Palladium Eagles (these may or may not be issued in 2011), 2011 Proof Gold Buffalo, 2011-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle (the possibility of this product remains uncertain), and responses indicating "nothing."

Do you plan to buy the American Palladium Eagles?

It will depend on the price of palladium or other factors	37.34%
I will not buy either version	30.97%
I plan to buy the numismatic version	15.77%
I plan to buy both the numismatic and bullion version	13.46%
I plan to buy the bullion version	2.46%

Near the end of 2010, a bill was signed into law which will likely result in the issuance of a new one ounce .9995 fine palladium bullion and collector coin.

The American Palladium Eagle would feature the obverse design of the Mercury Dime and the reverse design of the 1907 American Institute of Architects Medal. Both designs by Adolph A. Weinman would be rendered in high relief.

The release date of the coins remains unknown. A marketing study is required to be performed to ensure that adequate demand exists for palladium bullion coins produced by the United States Mint. Within not more than one year after the submission of the study, the coins are required to be issued.

Altogether 31.69% of readers indicated that they intend to buy the bullion and/or numismatic version of the coin. Roughly the same percentage indicated that they would not buy either version of the coin. The remaining 37.34% of readers remain on the fence until pricing or other factors about the coins become known.

Survey Results: Favorite 2010 US Mint Product and Coin Design

Just before the end of last year, I put together a survey for readers of Mint News Blog. This survey asked a brief series of questions looking back over US Mint coins and products of 2010, and looking forward to the coming year. An opportunity to make predictions was also provided.

In a series of four posts, I will report on the results of the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey. There were just under 700 responses from readers. Thank you to everyone who took the time to participate.

This was the second year for the survey. The first survey had provided some great insights and surprisingly accurate predictions. (See my post revisiting the results after one year.) I hope that this year's survey will provide a similar experience.

What was your favorite US Mint numismatic product released in 2010?

Top 5 Responses

2010 Proof American Silver Eagle	38.49%
2010 Proof American Gold Buffalo	11.87%
Other	11.72%
James Buchanan's Liberty $10 Gold	11.29%
Boy Scouts of America Centennial Silver Dollar	7.81%

The favorite numismatic product of readers was the 2010 Proof Silver Eagle, with 38.49% of the vote. The top result was not too surprising. In last year's survey, the cancellation of the 2009 Proof Silver Eagle had been voted as the biggest disappointment of the year. After this one year hiatus, the popular product made its return.

The release of the 2010 Proof Silver Eagle was not without some issues. One week prior to the launch, about 100,000 US Mint subscription customers received email notifications stating that the product was sold out and orders canceled. Soon after sales began, the US Mint discovered that about 2,200 orders placed via the internet had been deleted in error. Overall, the coins were available from the US Mint from November 19, 2010 to December 28, 2010. The last reported sales were 860,000 coins.

Other products in the top five for favorite product included the 2010 Proof Gold Buffalo with 11.87% of the vote, the James Buchanan's Liberty First Spouse Gold Coin with 11.29% of the vote, and the Boy Scouts of America Centennial Silver Dollar at 7.81%.

The "Other" category received 11.72% of the vote. The write-in responses in order of frequency included various America the Beautiful Quarters Sets, America the Beautiful 5 oz Silver Bullion Coins (this was not included in the choices since the numismatic version was not offered yet), 2010 Silver Proof Set, and various responses indicating "nothing."

Including only newly issued designs, what was the best US Mint Coin design of the year?

Top 5 Responses

2010 Lincoln Cent	19.42%
2010 Native American Dollar	14.78%
2010 Proof American Platinum Eagle	13.48%
James Buchanan's Liberty $10 Gold Coin	10.43%
Mount Hood National Forest Quarter	6.52%

The 2010 Lincoln Cent design attracted the highest number of votes for the best US Mint coin design of the year. The reverse features an image of the Union Shield with thirteen vertical stripes bound by a horizontal bar with the inscription "E Pluribus Unum". This symbolizes the original thirteen states joined together in one compact union to support the federal government. A scroll across the lower portion of the shield contains the denomination "One Cent" with "United States of America" above.

The 2010 Lincoln Cent reverse was designed by Lyndall Bass and sculpted by Joseph Menna. The design was chosen from a field of 18 original design candidates to symbolize Lincoln's preservation of the United States as a single and united country.

Coming in second place was the 2010 Native American Dollar, which features the Hiawatha Belt, a visual representation of the Haudenosaunee or Iroquois Confederacy. Closely following in third was the 2010 Proof Platinum Eagle, which features a blindfolded Justice holding scales and an olive branch.

Fourth and fifth place were taken by the James Buchanan's Liberty First Spouse Gold Coin and Mount Hood National Forest Quarter.

Only one of the 19 options included in the survey question failed to receive a single vote. This was the Franklin Pierce Presidential Dollar.

The results from the annual survey differ from a separate survey taken at mid-year for coins released up to that point. The 2010 Lincoln Cent and 2010 Native American Dollar traded the top two spots. The third, fourth, and fifth place coins were replaced with other 2010 coins released in the second half of the year.

Mint News Blog 2011 Survey

As a way of wrapping up 2010 and looking ahead to 2011, I have created a survey for Mint News Blog readers. The questions are related to US Mint numismatic products, coins, and precious metals.

Last year about 700 people responded to the survey, providing some interesting insights and surprisingly accurate predictions. This year, the survey is a little bit shorter with fewer open ended responses to provide better focus for the coverage of results.

Take the Mint News Blog 2011 Survey

The survey will remain open through January 9, 2011. Only one response per person is allowed. Coverage of the survey responses will take place on Mint News Blog throughout the month January.

Happy New Year Everyone!

Revisiting Mint News Blog 2010 Survey

Last year I had put together a brief survey for Mint News Blog readers, which opened on December 31, 2009 and closed on January 8, 2010. The survey included questions about US Mint numismatic products, coins, and other topics of interest to collectors.

Besides looking back over the previous year, there were also questions about the upcoming year and an opportunity for readers to make predictions. With the year almost over, I thought it would be interesting to look back at some of these questions, responses, and predictions.

Will the US Mint issue a proof version of the 2010 Silver Eagle?

With 64.85% of the vote the majority of readers responded Yes. For most of 2010, the offering remained far from certain. On March 27, 2010 at the ANA National Money Show in Texas, the Mint Director made comments about the continuing record demand for bullion coins, which raised serious doubts about the collector offerings.

As the year moved on, there were two possible avenues for minting 2010 Proof Silver Eagles. First, a change in law could allow greater flexibility in producing collector coins. Second, the US Mint could meet full demand for bullion coins, allowing production of collector coins under existing law.

Eventually, a drop in bullion demand in August and September allowed the production of proof Silver Eagles to take place, although a change in law was also later enacted. The US Mint offered the 2010 Proof Silver Eagle beginning November 19, 2010 and it sold out by December 28.

Will the overall production of circulating coins for 2010 rise or fall from the number produced in 2009?

For this question, 61.41% of readers responded Fall, while 38.59% predicted Rise. Through November 30, 2010, annual circulating coin production for 2010 has already topped 2009 production by more than 77%.

Across all denominations there have been nearly 6.3 billion circulating coins produced during 2010, compared to 3.55 billion last year. Large increases for cents, nickels, and dimes, offset moderate declines in production for quarters and dollar coins.

Gold and Silver Eagle Bullion coin production

There were two questions asking whether readers thought production of Gold Eagle and Silver Eagle bullion coins would rise or fall in 2010 compared to the prior year. Responses were split, with about half of readers predicting a fall and half predicting a rise.

Through the current date, Silver Eagle bullion coin production rose, at 34,662,500 ounces compared to 28,766,500 last year. Gold Eagle bullion coin production fell, with 1,220,500 ounces sold this year, compared to 1,425,000 last year.

Will the price of gold rise or fall during 2010?

For this question, 74.18% of readers correctly predicted that the price of gold would rise. In a follow up question, readers were asked to predict the closing price of gold on December 31, 2010. The majority of responses fell into the correct range of $1,250 - $1,500 per ounce.

Out of all responses, the average guess was $1,375.13. The price of gold is currently $1,418.00 just before the end of the year.

Bold Predictions

A final section of the survey asked readers to make a bold prediction for 2010. A decent number of these predictions turned out to be accurate. I will include some of these predictions below with my comments in italics.

"Palladium UHR!"

A bill authorizing American Palladium Eagles was recently signed into law by the President. The coins will feature Adolph A. Weinman's designs from the Mercury Dime obverse and 1907 AIA Medal reverse. Coins will be issued within one year of the submission of a marketing survey.

"I expect the 5 oz silver National Parks coins will sell out immediately . Their prices will follow the same type of curve the 1st wives coins did when first released. By the second year, the release will be a non event."

Authorized purchasers have ordered the full US Mint production of 165,000 coins. Secondary market prices have spiraled higher, even before the majority of the coins have been sold to the public. We will have to wait and see about the second half of the prediction.

"Congress will mandate Eagle Proofs be minted for collectors."

The bill H.R. 6162 was recently signed into law by the President. Among other things, this bill will allow the Secretary of the Treasury the flexibility of authorizing collector versions of the Gold and Silver Eagles, even if full demand for bullion coins is not being met.

"At least one MS first spouse gold coin will finish its production run with under 3,000 sales."

The US Mint ended sales of the Julia Tyler First Spouse Gold Coin on June 3, 2010. The last reported sales for the uncirculated version were 2,861 coins.

"A metal change for circulating coins."

The recently enacted bill H.R. 6162 requires the Secretary of the Treasury to make biennial reports to Congress about the costs and cost trends of circulating coins, as well as make recommendations about coin composition changes. This seems to open the door to future changes.

"The new quarters will be hard to find, low mintage, and banks won't order them."

The 2010 America the Beautiful Quarters have the lowest mintages for the denomination in decades. However, they are readily available from the US Mint through numismatic bags, rolls, and other products. Availability at banks is spotty at best, due to the fact that the banks are not provided with special ordering procedures for each design, like they were for the prior State Quarters Program.

For anyone interested, you can read all of the survey responses and reader comments here.

A new survey for this year will be posted later today.

Survey Results: Bold Predictions

This post will conclude the coverage of the Mint News Blog reader survey. This survey was available during the first week of January as a way to wrap up the old year and start thinking about 2010 coins. The survey covered US Mint products, circulating coins, precious metals, and related topics.

With the coverage of the survey concluded, I wanted to once again thank all of the readers who completed the survey and others who read along for the results. These survey results will be revisited in some fashion at the end of the year.

From my perspective, compiling and covering the survey results was a thought provoking and enjoyable experience. It did end up being a much more lengthy process than I had anticipated. Next year, I plan to create a similar survey, but will probably reduce and refocus the questions. If anyone has other suggestions about how to improve next year's survey, please lave a comment.

The final page of the survey asked for a bold prediction about something completely unexpected that would happen during 2010 related to the US Mint or coins. I picked out a representative selection of these bold predictions, which are republished below:

"The design of the Silver Eagle will change."

"The Mint will announce the closing of one of the Mint locations due to the lowered need for circulating coin production."

"The post office will start to sell coins made by the mint in addition to stamps."

"A major change on the obverse on one of current coins. I haven't given up hope that they might put Teddy Roosevelt on the quarter or do something major with the dime."

"Presidential Dollar program canceled after Lincoln issue."

"The Mint will stop offering bullion because it will be unable to keep up with demand"

"A 1964-D Peace Dollar will surface."

"Palladium UHR!"

"I expect the 5 oz silver National Parks coins will sell out immediately . Their prices will follow the same type of curve the 1st wives coins did when first released. By the second year, the release will be a non event."

"Congress will mandate Eagle Proofs be minted for collectors."

"Another transitional variety will be discovered, similar to the 2008 silver eagle with the reverse of 2007, among currently circulating U.S. coinage."

"At least one MS first spouse gold coin will finish its production run with under 3,000 sales."

"Mint will produce 'new' Morgans to take advantage of the beauty and popularity of this coin and its design. "

"The U.S. Mint will not mint any 2010 nickels or dimes for circulation!"

"1933 St. Gaudens Double Eagles will be declared legal to own by a federal judge, and a dozen 'new' examples will surface."

"A metal change for circulating coins."

"2009 silver eagles (burnished and proofs) will be made available as limited edition products in the 2010 year."

"The mint will end direct shipment dollar coin program."

"Silver will make an all time high."

"The new quarters will be hard to find, low mintage, and banks won't order them."

Other posts covering survey results:
Favorite 2009 US Mint Product and Biggest Disappointment
Mint News Blog Readers Reflect on 2009
2010 US Mint Products and Potential Offerings
Collecting America the Beautiful Quarters
Mint News Blog Readers Look Ahead to 2010
2010 Coins and Precious Metals Predictions

Survey Results: 2010 Coins and Precious Metals Predictions

To finish 2009 and start looking ahead to 2010, Mint News Blog readers were provided with a reader survey which asked questions about US Mint products, coins, and precious metals. The survey results are being covered in an ongoing series of posts.

For the next section of the survey, a series of questions asked for predictions about the coming year. This section will be interesting to revisit at the end of the year to see how accurate the predictions were.

Will the US Mint issue a proof version of the 2010 Silver Eagle?

Yes: 64.85%
No: 35.15%

In 2009, the United States Mint had canceled the proof version of the 2009 American Silver Eagle. The announcement was made in October after a year of uncertainty and anticipation. The Mint cited their legal requirement to produce bullion coins to meet public demand and the lack of a legal mandate to produce the collector coins. They further stated that they would work diligently with suppliers to increase precious metals blank supplies to resume production of collector coins in 2010.

Survey respondents were optimistic with 64.85% predicting that the proof version would be issued for 2010, but prospects remain uncertain. Demand for bullion coins shows no signs of slowing down. The US Mint just began sales of the bullion version of the coin to authorized purchasers on January 19, 2010. On the opening day of availability, 2.44 million Silver Eagle bullion coins were sold, exceeding the full monthly total for January 2009 sales.

Will the overall production of circulating coins for 2010 rise or fall from the number produced in 2009?

Fall: 61.41%
Rise: 38.59%

For 2009, United States Mint coin production fell to a 45 year low. Economic conditions caused a slow down in commerce and prompted individuals to cash in old accumulations of coins. These factors limited the need for shipments of new coins to the Federal Reserve Banks.

The US Mint and Federal Reserve Banks have predicted continuing low demand for additional circulating coins in 2010. Survey respondents shared this opinion with 61.41% indicating that production would fall for another year.

Will the number of Silver Eagle bullion coins sold in 2010 rise or fall from the number sold in 2009?

Rise: 50.43%
Fall: 49.57%

Will the number of Gold Eagle bullion coins sold in 2010 rise or fall from the number sold in 2009?


Rise: 53.74%
Fall: 46.26%

The demand for physical precious metals investments took off during the uncertainty of 2008 and continues to drive heavy demand for gold and silver bullion coins. During 2010, the United States Mint sold a record high 28,766,500 one ounce American Silver Eagle bullion coins. They also sold 1,425,000 ounces through their American Gold Eagle bullion offerings.

Survey respondents were somewhat split about the perpetuation of the upwards trend.

Will the price of gold rise or fall during 2010?

Rise: 74.18%
Fall: 25.82%

Guess the price of gold on December 31, 2010.

Price of Gold	Guesses
$0 - $500	2
$501 - $800	19
$801 - $1,000	108
$1,001 - $1,250	110
$1,250 - $1,500	243
$1,501 - $1,750	88
$1751 - $2,000	42
$2,001 +	18

Gold enjoyed its ninth consecutive annual gain during 2009 with a gain of 27.63% during the year. Most survey respondents believed that the price of gold would continue to rise in 2010.

The follow up question asked for an exact price for gold to finish the year. The average guess was $1,375.13. This would represent a rise of about 25%. The median guess came in at $1,350. The most frequent guess was $1,500 with 27 respondent choosing that number.

Other posts covering survey results:
Favorite 2009 US Mint Product and Biggest Disappointment
Mint News Blog Readers Reflect on 2009
2010 US Mint Products and Potential Offerings
Collecting America the Beautiful Quarters
Mint News Blog Readers Look Ahead to 2010

Survey Results: Collecting America the Beautiful Quarters

This will be the fourth installment in the ongoing series of posts providing the results of a survey answered by Mint News Blog readers at the end of last year. The sixth question was related to the America the Beautiful Quarters series, which will debut in 2010.

This series will feature 56 different reverse designs issued from 2010 to 2021 at a rate of five per year. The obverse will feature a portrait of George Washington and the reverse will feature a unique design representing a National Park or National Site from each state, territory, and the District of Columbia. The designs will be issued in the order that the sites were federally designated.

Readers were asked how they would collect the America the Beautiful coin series and allowed to select all methods that apply. Based on the US Mint's available subscription products and preliminary product schedule, the coins will be sold in numismatic bags and rolls, and in separate proof and silver proof sets. The coins will also be included in the full annual sets and released into circulation. It is possible that the Mint will add other products to the lineup, but nothing else has been announced so far.

(Note that there will be an offering of America the Beautiful Silver bullion coins, which feature exact duplicates of the quarter designs and contain five ounces of .999 silver. I did not include this option, since I wanted to focus on the circulation issue quarters.)

How will you collect the new America the Beautiful Quarters series?

As included in the full annual US Mint Uncirculated Set, Proof Set, or Silver Proof Set	37.13%
Purchase America the Beautiful Proof or Silver Proof Set	22.75%
I will not collect the series in any form	17.89%
Collect from circulation	13.55%
Purchase US Mint bags and rolls	8.69%

The results of this question indicate a relatively low level of interest in collecting the new quarter series. Most glaringly, 17.89% of respondents indicated that they would not collect the series in any form. I suspect that if coin collectors had been asked a similar question before the start of the State Quarters series, responses would have been much different.

When the 50 State Quarters Program concluded, the United States Mint stated that 147 million Americans had collected coins from the series. This number was high enough to represent nearly one out of every two Americans, or at least one person from every household in the country. If nearly 18% of coin collectors do not intend to collect the upcoming America the Beautiful Quarters series, the level of awareness and interest from the broader public will likely be a fraction of the levels experienced for the State Quarters series.

When America the Beautiful Quarters series was first proposed, there was a vocal segment of the coin collecting public who expressed the opinion that the concept of rotating designs for circulating coins had been overused. The concept does has the potential to be innovative, as seen with the 50 State Quarters Program, or exciting, as seen with the 2009 Lincoln Cent designs. But when it is used over and over, at some point "change" becomes less interesting or even undesirable.

The US Mint has still not released the final designs for the 2010 America the Beautiful Quarters. The latest information indicates that the designs will be unveiled in a special ceremony held in February. The first quarter of the series featuring Hot Springs National Park is tentatively scheduled to be released in April 2010.

Other posts covering survey results:
Favorite 2009 US Mint Product and Biggest Disappointment
Mint News Blog Readers Reflect on 2009
2010 US Mint Products and Potential Offerings

Survey Results: 2010 US Mint Products and Potential Offerings

The series of posts covering the results of a year end survey for Mint News Blog readers will continue with this post. The fourth and fifth questions were in relation to the US Mint's upcoming products for 2010 and a more general question about products that readers would like to see the US Mint offer in the future.

Of the products listed on the current US Mint 2010 scheduled product listing, what are you looking forward to most?

Other	38.36%
Boy Scouts of America Silver dollar	16.95%
American Veterans Disabled for Life Silver Dollar	13.22%
2010 Proof Platinum Eagle	12.56%
James Buchanan's Liberty $10 Gold	10.92%
Mary Todd Lincoln $10 Gold	8.19%

The reaction to the question was widely mixed. The majority of readers chose "Other" with 38.36% of the vote. This was followed by the Boy Scouts of America Centennial Silver Dollar at 16.95%, with the remaining options dividing the rest of the vote.

For readers who had selected "Other," there was an opportunity to provide a separate written response. Of the responses provided for the "Other" category, 25% simply indicated "none" or "none of the above." This was closely followed by 23% who indicated the Proof or Unicrculated 2010 Silver Eagle. These products currently are not listed on the US Mint's 2010 schedule, as their production will remain contingent on the ability of the Mint to satisfy "full demand" for bullion coins.

More responses from the "Other" category in order of frequency included: America the Beautiful Quarters, 2009 Lincoln Presidential Dollar products, one or more of the US Mint's annual sets, America the Beautiful Silver Bullion Coins, 2010 Gold Buffalo Proof coins, 2010 Lincoln Cent products, and Proof 2010 Gold Eagles. Again, several of these responses indicate products that are not currently included on the product schedule.

Not including collectible Gold and Silver Eagles, what product would you most like to see the US Mint offer in 2010 or the future?

Limited mintage sets including special strike or mint marked coins	35.44%
Fractional Gold Buffalo coins	26.11%
Rolls and bags of other circulating coins (cents, nickels, dimes)	15.64%
Coins struck in palladium or other new composition	15.49%
Other	7.32%

The most popular response was "limited mintage sets including special strike or mint marked coins" with 35.44% of the vote. Past offerings of this nature have been very popular with collectors and proved to be secondary market winners. In 2006 the US Mint issued 20th Anniversary Sets for the Gold and Silver Eagle, which included reverse proof coins. During the 1990's, there were several sets issued with matte proof versions of circulating coins such as the 1998 Robert F. Kennedy Set with the 1998-S matte proof Kennedy Half.

A very interesting idea for a special set that the US Mint could develop for 2010 was mentioned by a reader "Former Boy Scout" in a comment to a previous post. A set could be developed featuring the Boy Scouts Silver Dollar Commemorative together with a special 2010 Kennedy Half Dollar (with a special finish or W mintmark). The set would be fitting and meaningful since John F. Kennedy was the first U.S. President to be a former Boy Scout.

The next most popular response was Fractional Gold Buffalo coins with 26.11% of the vote. These coins were issued for only one year in 2008 before being discontinued.

Rolls and bags of circulating coins and coins struck in palladium or a new composition received approximately 15% of the vote each.

Some of the responses entered by readers who selected "Other" presented some very interesting ideas for potential products. These included:

- True silver proof set with all silver coins, penny through dollar. (Although the US Mint issues a silver proof set, the majority of coins currently have non-silver compositions.)

- Bimetallic coins. (The only US Mint bi-metallic coin was the 2000-W Library of Congress $10 Coin, which consisted of platinum with an outer ring of gold.)

- Legacy or Prestige Proof Sets. (The US Mint issued Prestige Proof Sets from 1986 to 1997 and American Legacy Collections from 2005 to 2008. These sets included the coins of the annual Proof Set plus one or more commemorative coins.)

- Coins using classic designs. Some mentioned included the Morgan Dollar, Liberty Head Double Eagle, Bust, Seated, and Flowing Hair designs.

- Classic designs re-imagined by skilled contemporary artists.

- More reverse proof coins.

Other posts covering survey results:
Favorite 2009 US Mint Product and Biggest Disappointment
Mint News Blog Readers Reflect on 2009

Survey Results: Mint News Blog Readers Reflect on 2009

This post will continue the series providing the results of a year end survey answered by Mint News Blog readers.

The third question allowed readers to provide their thoughts or comments on 2009 US Mint products or developments in an open format. More than 200 readers took the time to provide comments that filled over 14 single spaced pages. I have read all of the comments and will do my best to distill some of the common themes as well as provide a selection of comments republished here.

The most frequent comments were in relation to the cancellation of the 2009 Proof Gold and Silver Eagles, with most of the emphasis on the Silver Eagle. The loss of this coin was seen as a break with tradition, a blow to the average collector, and many expressed the opinion that the coins could have been produced if the Mint made more of an effort.

Other frequent comments were related to the lack of fractional weight collectible precious metals coins. In past years, gold and platinum collector coins were offered in a range of fractional weights which allowed the US Mint to cover array of pricing points for precious metals products.

There were other recurring comments critiquing the US Mint's quality and selection, their website design and function, and coin design selections.

Below I have published a variety of the comments provided by Mint News Blog readers. I couldn't include everything, but I have tried to cover the array of reactions and topics that were mentioned.

"There were some nice coins this year from the mint. My favorites in no particular order are the Lincoln cents, Lincoln dollars, Platinum Eagle, Proof Buffalo, uncirculated and proof sets. I think the uncirculated sets will be the big winners a few years down the road when people realize that there are less than a million of the bronze uncirculated cents."

"Would have liked all of the Presidential Dollar products from 2007 and 2008 produced in 2009. Specifically the Signature Series and the Individual Proof Series. I have the first 8 in both."

"Only my opinion, but after collecting and buying Mint products every year since the early 1960's, the Mint has deteriorated both in product offerings, service, availability, and pricing. I believe they have lowered their operation for collectors to third rate status, and no one in authority is either watching or seems to care."

"The 2010 penny design is hideous, such a let-down from the 2009 series. The 2010 commemorative dollar designs I've seen are equally lack-luster. Take more inspiration from coins such as the Saint-Gaudens UHR coins, something American coin collectors would be proud to own. Otherwise, what's the point?"

"Just wish there could be a 'popular vote' type of thing on new coin designs, to reflect the collector community's take on alternatives that make it to the final round."

"2009 was bittersweet for modern coin collectors and a year of transition. The U.S. Mint knocked our socks off with stunning renditions of Ultra High Relief and Platinum Eagles, but tarnished collectors with ambivalent communications and uncertain product availability.Within the community of modern coin collectors, a sharp digital divide emerged as those who collect for the sake of collecting clashed with ebayers and a whimsical secondary market. At the end of the year, it's fair to say that the Mint tried to hedge a terrible international economy and soaring metal prices with a limited mix of mandatory and discretionary product lines. Whether or not this strategy worked remains to be seen until the Treasury Department discloses calendar year financials."

"This is the first year that I've ordered products. The web site seemed a little slow at times - but overall a good experience"

"I think the Eagle cancellation was inexcusable. Any other business would have found a way to make it work, and the mint could have too. It is much easier to say 'we cant' rather than we can."

"Canada offers circulating coins for a very small premium over face. I would like to see our Mint offer the same service... Also, the gold & silver bullion coins should be offered direct. This having to find a dealer is a pain, and I often do not get the annual silver Eagle coin because of that."

"Common coins packaged differently was the theme of 2009."

"The mint needs to respond better to the wants of the average coin collector. Thousand dollar coins may make the mint money, but the average collector is the long time tradition for the future. My thoughts are also that the large buyers are getting way more than their share. If the mint wants to sellout to the large coin retailers, than maybe the rest of us collectors should just go directly to eBay. At least they are fast at shipping and my buy is guaranteed."

"Return production of the fractional gold and platinum coins. Dump the dealer distributor network for uncirculated eagle coins and allow direct purchase from the mint. Dump the presidential wife gold series. Reduce mint fees for golden dollar and quarter rolls."

"Designs remain far too literal and 'busy'. Better coin designs use allegorical images."

"Still cannot believe that they killed a 23 year collection for my silver and gold eagles... They need to send several employees on a fact finding trip to the Perth Mint. The Aussies know how to treat their loyal & paying customers properly."

"The Ultra High Relief St. G. is a beauty--and was plainly a labor of love on the part of the Mint and its Director. The 2004, 2006 and 2008 W platinum Eagle reverses were stunning! 2009 isn't up to the standard they set."

"The cancellation of the 2009 Silver Eagle proof and uncirculated version are by far the most disappointing development of 2009 US mint products. This has been a cherished coin for the last few decades. Many collectors have expressed their disappointment with the US Mint regarding these coins. This is the coin that get me started collecting. As the new year approaches I hope that the US Mint has heard the feedback from its supporters and will make a solid effort to make this coin available in 2010 and beyond."

"The Mint does what it does and we react. When the Mint makes mistakes we gain opportunities for unusual coins. I think they create good products and I have no complaints."

Other posts covering survey results:
Favorite 2009 US Mint Product and Biggest Disappointment

Survey Results: Favorite 2009 US Mint Product and Biggest Disappointment

Just before the end of 2009, I created a survey for Mint News Blog readers. The survey allowed readers to share their thoughts and opinions on US Mint products from 2009 and for the coming year. Some of the questions covered broader topics, asked for predictions, or allowed open ended responses. Almost 800 readers completed the survey with many providing detailed responses.

For the next week or so, I will be publishing the results of the survey in multiple parts. These posts will be in addition to the regular ongoing coverage on US Mint product news and information.

What was your favorite US Mint product for 2009?

Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set	43.47%
2009 Ultra High Relief Gold Coin	36.44%
2009 Proof Gold Buffalo	8.46%
Other	8.03%
2009 Proof Platinum Eagle	3.59%

The favorite product of readers was the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set with 43.47% of the vote. This was followed by the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin which received 36.44% of the vote.

From the readers who selected "other," the top three responses in order were the 2009 Proof Set, one or more of the First Spouse Gold Coins, and the 2009 Lincoln Commemorative Silver Dollar.

My personal favorite product was the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set. The price was set at a bargain level, mostly due to the premiums which had already developed for the 2009 Lincoln Silver Dollar. The set was extremely well put together in terms of packaging and content. The limited production run for a product with obvious broad appeal added an element of excitement to the release. The set was shipped promptly and looked even better in hand, to complete the experience.

What was the biggest disappointment of 2009?

2009 Proof Silver Eagle Cancellation	57.25%
Coin Design Selections	14.78%
Other	9.90%
Decreased Number of Products	9.76%
2009 Proof Gold Eagle Cancellation	8.32%

The biggest disappointment was overwhelmingly the cancellation of the 2009 Proof Silver Eagle. Coming in second was disappointment about the coin designs selected for new or upcoming coins. Nearly 10% of readers selected the other category and provided a combination of choices or different options.

From the readers who selected "other," the top three responses in order were "all of the above" or a combination of the included options, the cancellation of collectible uncirculated (burnished) Gold and/or Silver Eagles, and the unavailability of 2009 dated circulating coins (mostly mentioning nickels and dimes).

Additional disappointments provided by one or more readers included the lack of smaller denomination precious metals coins for collectors, quality control and shipping issues, product prices that were too high, the unlimited mintage for the UHR Double Eagle, and the new finish used for proof coinage.

Personally, I was most disappointed by the cancellation of the 2009 Proof Silver Eagle. When my wife and I had our first son in 2008, I immediately bought him the 2008 Proof Silver Eagle. Among the other coins I would regularly add to my son's collection, I decided that every year I would buy the Proof Silver Eagle for him. When the US Mint broke with their tradition, I was forced to break with mine.

This was a core product of the US Mint that has been offered for more than 20 years. I do not believe that all avenues were explored before the decision was made to cancel Proof Silver Eagle and other products. I think that it will take several years of regularly issuing the Proof Silver Eagle and providing other well executed collector products to win back the goodwill and trust that the US Mint lost this year.

Mint News Blog 2010 Survey

As a way to wrap up this year and lead into 2010, I have put together the Mint News Blog 2010 Survey. This survey includes questions about United States Mint numismatic products for 2009 and the upcoming year, as well as questions of general interest to coin collectors. The idea for the survey comes from a Mint News Blog reader. (Thanks John)

Most of the questions are multiple choice, but there are several optional questions which allow for lengthier written responses. The collective results for the multiple choice questions will be published in one or more future Mint News Blog posts. Excerpts from some of the written responses may also be published.

The sections of the survey include 2009 US Mint Products, 2010 US Mint Products, 2010 Predictions, and some optional questions about Mint News Blog. The survey will remain open until January 8, 2010.

You can access the survey here.

As the last post of 2009, I also wanted to wish everyone Happy New Year!