NGC Proof Like "PL" 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins

My recent post on 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin Prices highlighted the fact that huge premiums were being paid for proof like coins which had received NGC's "PL" designation. Many readers wanted to find more information about how to identify proof like coins and how they are differentiated from non-PL coins.

Bob and Rich Leece or Robert B. Leece Numismatist Inc. (http://rareusgold.com), who have probably handled more UHR Double Eagles than anyone, were willing to provide their expertise for an article published on Coin Update.

The following excerpt from the article is their description of the characteristics of Proof Like Ultra High Relief Double Eagles and how they can be distinguished from non Proof Like coins.

A PL coin has a definite Proof Like and Shinny Mirror Surface on ALL of the Obverse and Reverse of the coin. The only difference from the UHR PL coins and other Modern Proof coins is that the UHR PL coins do NOT exhibit the Cameo Contrast that is evident on standard Modern Proof Coins. In our opinion they fit the standards of Proof in all other aspects. Once you have seen a PL and a NON PL UHR side by side it the difference becomes more obvious. A NON Proof Like coin has a satin matte like surface not unlike a standard MS or burnished modern coin.

The problem lies in that there is a wide range of "in between" surfaces. They range from almost PL to very slight faint hints of PL. There are also coins that are PL on the Obverse but not on the reverse. The range can be drastic. From our experience a UHR is much more likely to have a PL Obverse and non-PL reverse. It seems to me that the definitive distinction of a PL coin is a coin that has FULL PL surfaces on Obverse and Reverse including and MOST importantly in between the rays on the reverse of the coin. That is the most likely part of the coin to lack the true PL surface.

The full article contains additional information and images of Proof Like UHR Double Eagles, including an estimate of the proportion of coins qualifying as proof like and how they could have been created.

Read the full article:
Proof Like 2009 Ultra High Relief Double eagles Fetch Big Premiums

2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Prices

More more than one month has passed since sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin concluded at the US Mint. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to examine the recent sales prices for the coins on the secondary market.

In recent weeks, the premiums for many collectible gold coins have experienced a sharp decline. This has come amidst an extended decline in the price of gold, which brought the price from its high of $1,212.50 reached on December 2, 2009 to the recent low of $1,058.00 per ounce reached on February 5, 2010.

I have been generally aware of the price levels of the UHR Double Eagles, but it was very interesting to do a more comprehensive evaluation. I compiled all of the data for completed eBay auctions from January 28 to February 10. I recorded the prices for any listings resulting in a sale and the basic aspects of the coin (raw, PCGS, or NGC grade). I came up with a total of 102 prices, which I think provided a reasonable amount of data for examining trends and averages. I did not take into account any factors such as the duration of the auction, time of day, whether it was an auction or Buy It Now, feedback of the sellers, etc.

First, I tried to examine the data to see if prices were generally rising or falling, but I also wanted to take into account the price of gold. The trend of the UHR price levels could be a bit difficult to pin down, because of the different price levels for various grades and raw coins. To narrow the focus, I picked the biggest group, raw coins, and looked at the average price for the first five days of data when the average price of gold was $1,080.59 and the last five days of data when the average price of gold was $1,062.02.

The average price for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle in original US Mint packaging for the first five days was $1,520.50. The average price for a similar coin during the last five days examined was $1,549.06. As the price of gold was falling, the prices paid for the UHR Double Eagle held up and even showed gains. I think this is a good indication of the long term staying power and continued premiums for the coin.

One of the most surprising things I saw when running through the data were the prices being paid for coins which have been graded NGC MS 70 PL. NGC uses the "PL" designation for coins which exhibit proof like surfaces.

During the period, eight coins graded NGC MS 70 PL were sold. Some prices from early in the period were $4,100 and $4,150. The most recent three coins sold for around $4,500 each. NGC's online population report indicates that 589 coins have been graded MS 70 PL compared to 4,611 coins graded MS 70 without the designation.

As a final exercise, I calculated the average prices realized for 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles across various options. The results of these calculations are below.

Original Packaging	$1,543.48
PCGS MS69	$1,615.25
PCGS MS70	$2,031.25
PCGS MS70 FS	$2,229.60
NGC MS 69	$1,547.00
NGC MS 69 PL	$2,412.80
NGC MS 70	$1,836.45
NGC MS 70 PL	$4,268.00

I thought it was interesting that the average price paid for a UHR Double Eagle in the original box was $1,543.48. This is just a little bit above the highest price that the US Mint had charged for the coin. The price of $1,539 was briefly in effect when the average price of gold had risen to a range between $1,150 and $1,099.99. The lowest price the US Mint charged for the coin was $1,189, in effect when sales first began on January 19, 2009.

If anyone is interested, the price data gathered from eBay can be found in this spreadsheet.

Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin Mintage

The final sales figure for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin is being reported as 115,178 by Numismatic News.

This number is 3,113 higher than the number reported on the last available sales report from December 27, 2009. This indicates that there was a small surge in last minute orders during the final days of availability. In the preceding three one-week periods, the coins had recorded sales of 587, 1,887, and 1,384.

Before the coin went on sale, the unlimited mintage represented somewhat of an uncertainty and a possible draw back. After several weeks of heavy ordering, sales settled into a steady pace amidst a few bumps higher, which coincided with increases in the household ordering limit.

Overall, the pace of sales remained relatively moderate. The initial ordering limit of one per household kept a restraint on sales at a time when excitement about the offering was highest. When limits were raised and eventually lifted, prices were higher and some of the excitement had faded.

In my opinion, for a single year issue of a very unique offering, this mintage at this level is at a reasonable level to support continued premiums.

UHR Double Eagle Sales Ending December 31, 2009

Today, the US Mint announced that orders for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin will only be accepted until December 31, 2009 at 3:00 PM ET. This leaves collectors with 21 days left to order the coins directly from the Mint.

As of December 6, 2009, the US Mint had sold a total of 108,207 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles, including the sales of 1,131 in the most recent week. Assuming the pace of sales doesn't pick up too much in the coming weeks, the final mintage for the coin should fall below 120,000. For a one year issue of a hugely popular coin, this mintage is relatively low. When the 2006 Proof Gold Buffalo was released, the US Mint had sold nearly than 250,000 coins.

Since the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin has been one of the biggest stories this year, I wanted to provide a recap on the history of the coin from the initial announcement through the projected end of sales.

March 13, 2008
US Mint Director Edmund Moy announced plans to recreate Augustus Saint Gaudens' Ultra High Relief $20 Gold Coin. The announcement came at a meeting of the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee. Director Moy remarked, "Recreating thousands of Augustus Saint-Gaudens' ultra-high relief Double Eagles will be a defining moment in American coinage."

July 30, 2008
The United States Mint unveiled the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin at the ANA World's Fair of Money in Baltimore, Maryland. A four phase exhibit at the US Mint booth showcased the development of the coin from gold bars, to plaster casts, to feasibility and test strikes, to the finished one ounce 24 karat gold coin. A similar online exhibit is now available on the US Mint's website.

November 24, 2008
The first production strike of the UHR Double Eagle took pace at the West Point Mint. The first coin produced was transferred to the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of American History. The second coin was retained for the United States Mint's heritage assets. Director Moy remarked, "One hundred years from now, I believe the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin will be remembered as the birth of the greatest American century in coin-making history."

January 22, 2009
Sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle began at 12:00 Noon ET. The initial offering price for the coin was $1,189 with an ordering limit of one per household. The product page contained a disclaimer that delivery could potentially take six to nine months based on gold blank availability. In the first day of sales, the US Mint sold 28,173 coins. Within five days, more than 40,000 coins had been sold.

February 9, 2009
The first 2009 UHR Double Eagle was received by a collector. The delivery and images of the coin were posted on Coin Network. The few collectors who received their coins early turned out to be the lucky ones.

February 25, 2009
After a few of the coins had shipped, the remainder were delayed for several weeks due to problems with the Companion Book. The US Mint sent emails to customers who ordered the coins to announce that shipping would resume, and some companion books would be shipped shipped separately. The delays and initial lack of information from the Mint upset some collectors. When more coins started to ship, there were also indications that coins were not shipping in First In-First Out order as the US Mint claimed.

March 2009
After a strong opening, the pace of sales for the UHR Double Eagle experienced a steep decline. By March, the US Mint had reached sales of 50,000 coins, but the pace of sales had declined to about 1,000 coins per week. Weekly sales would range from about 500 to 1,000 coins per week until later in the summer.

July 27, 2009
The United States Mint finally raised the ordering limit for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle to ten coins per household. By this time, year to date sales had reached nearly 70,000. The coins had also undergone a few price increases which brought the price to $1,289.

August 5-9, 2009
The United States Mint booth was a big attraction at the World's Fair of Money in Baltimore, Maryland. Attendees were allowed to purchase the UHR Double Eagles under the increased order limit. Many dealers used the opportunity to build an inventory of the coins by offering bounties for anyone who purchased coins at the US Mint's booth and immediately resold them. Coin Update News had an interview with one of the dealers. The increased activity helped push sales above 80,000.

August 31, 2009
The United States Mint raised the order limit to 25 coins per household.

September 21, 2009
The US Mint removed the ordering limit completely. By this time, the sales total had reached 92,346 and the coins were priced at $1,339 each.

October 18, 2009
Sales of the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle exceeded 100,000 coins.

November 25, 2009
The rising price of gold pushed US Mint prices higher for all gold coin products. The price of the UHR Double Eagle was increased to $1,539. This represented the highest price to date and was $350 above the initial offering price.

December 31, 2009
The final day of sales for the UHR Double Eagle at the US Mint. Orders may be placed through 3:00 PM ET on this date.

Ultra High Relief Above 100K, Braille Education Set Sales Higher

US Mint sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin have exceeded the closely watched 100,000 mark. The latest weekly sales figures from the United States Mint indicate that 100,704 coins have sold as of October 18, 2009. This represents an increase of 1,936 above the prior week.

Many collectors have eyed the 100,000 mark as a possible stopping point for sales of the UHR Double Eagle. Although there is not a maximum mintage or production limit for the coin, this year the US Mint has unofficially limited production and sales of many products to round numbers.

The only reference to mintage for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle that I have seen from the Mint is the following statement released back in May 2008: "The mintage of the new coin will be unlimited for one year. Only 2009-dated coins will be minted. The coins will go on sale in early 2009, although sales may continue into 2010 if inventory exists."

Another key figure from this week's sales report is the Louis Braille Education Set. Based on comments from previous posts, many collectors were planning to purchase this set together with the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set to consolidate shipping charges. The Braille Set was released one week before the Lincoln Set.

The Braille Education Set sales showed an increase of 3,277 for a total of 5,996 sets sold. Notably, the number of sets sold in the second week of sales actually exceeds the number of sets sold in the opening week. This is highly uncommon for US Mint products, which tend to sell the greatest number of units in the first week.

For a full report of US Mint sales figures for the week ended October 18, 2009, check out Coin Update News.

Ultra High Relief Sales, Gold Coin Price Decrease

Is the demand for the US Mint's 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin tapering off?

The latest sales figures indicate that 96,275 coins have been sold as of 9/27/2009. This represents sales of 1,811 coins for the preceding week. For the past several weeks before, the UHR Double Eagle had been selling more than 2,000 coins per week.

The prior week reporting period contained some changes that I thought would spur additional sales. The household ordering limit was completely removed on September 21, 2009, which opened the doors for any potential bulk buyers. The price for the coin was increased from $1,339 to $1,389 on September 23, 2009. Since the price increase was widely known in advance, any would-be buyers might have accelerated purchases to take advantage of the lower price. Despite these two factors, the pace of sales actually showed a decline from recent levels.

Incidentally, it seems that the gold coin price increase implemented last week will be very short lived. The average price of gold calculated from last Thursday London AM Fix to this Wednesday AM Fix is below the $1,000 level. Under the US Mint's numismatic gold coin pricing policy, the prices for coins will be adjusted downwards proportionally by $50 per ounce.

The price of the UHR Double Eagle should fall back to $1,339. The First Spouse Gold Coins should also be adjusted downward to $654 and $641 for proof and uncirculated coins, respectively. Recently, pricing changes have been implemented mid-morning on Wednesdays.

Ordering Limits to be Removed for 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles

The United States Mint has announced that the ordering limit for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins will be removed effective September 21, 2009 at 9:00 AM ET.

When the coins first went on sale January 19, 2009, there was an ordering limit of only one coin per household. The ordering limit was finally raised to ten coins per household on July 27, 2009. On August 31, 2009, the limit was raised a second time to twenty five coins per household.

As the ordering limits have been raised, the pace of sales for the UHR has ratcheted higher. Before the US Mint began raising the limit, the coins were selling at a pace of less than 1,000 coins per week. The first week of sales following the ordering limit increase to 10, the US Mint saw 3,799 coins ordered. In the most recent week, the US Mint sold 2,298 coins, bringing the total sales to 92,346.

The UHR Double Eagles are currently priced at $1,339 each. Under the US Mint's pricing policy, the price of the coins can be adjusted as often as once per week if the average price of gold moves across the designated $50 price increments. The current price of $1,339 reflects an average price of gold between $950.00 to $999.99. A price increase was narrowly missed this week, but if gold retains its current levels, UHR prices would be increased to $1,389 by the middle of next week. The US Mint has generally put price changes into effect around mid-morning on Wednesday.

2009 UHR Double Eagle Order Limit Raised to 25

The US Mint has indicated that the ordering limit for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin will be raised once again- this time to 25 coins per household. The increased limit will go into effect on August 31, 2009 at 12:00 Noon ET.

When the UHR initially went on sale, the US Mint had set the ordering limit at only one coin per household. The purpose of the limit was to "ensure that all members of the public have fair and equal access to United States Mint products." A secondary, unstated purpose of the limit was the limited availability of the specialized 24 karat gold blanks needed to produce the coins.

The limit was finally raised to 10 coins per household starting on July 27, 2009. This set off an increased pace of sales throughout the month of August. In the most recent week of sales reported, the US Mint sold 2,901 coins. Some of the recent rise was attributable to heavy buying at the US Mint sales booth at the World's Fair of Money. The new 25 coin limit may serve to support or even increase the the rapid pace of sales.

Many readers have already raised the question: If the US Mint can produce and sell mass quantities of the UHR, why can't they produce and sell their other collectible gold, silver, and platinum coins?

There have been on and off reports about whether certain coins will be produced such as the 2009 Proof Gold Buffalo, and a few reports about the US Mint starting to receive the necessary precious blanks. However, there has been nothing definitive about when the coins will be available for collectors. The US Mint's website offers the same explanation about the temporary suspension of the products due to the "unprecedented demand" for bullion coins. This message has appeared without an update since March.

Behind the 2009 UHR Double Eagle Sales Surge

The most recent sales numbers for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin shows a total of 80,700 coins sold. This marks an increase of nearly ten thousand coins over the course of the past three weeks.

The frenzied pace of sales began after the US Mint raised the ordering limit from one coin per household to ten coins per household. I previously examined some other contributing factors to the increase in sales, but missed one of the big ones. Ever since the limit was raised, many coin dealers have been using this as an opportunity to build significant inventories of the 2009 UHR Double Eagle.

This morning on Coin Update News, I posted an article and brief interview with Bob Lecce, the biggest on buyer of 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles. The full article is republished here for Mint News Blog readers.

Dealer Interview: Robert B. Lecce on 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles

With the order limit for the US Mint’s 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle recently increased from one coin per household to ten, many dealers have taken the opportunity to build a significant inventory of the coins. This was very apparent at the ANA World’s Fair of Money when the US Mint’s booth was swamped with customers buying the coins ten at a time.

Supporting the steady stream of buyers were a number of dealers willing to pay instant premiums on coins purchased from the Mint and immediately resold. The coins were available at the US Mint’s booth for $1,289 and dealers were repurchasing the coins for $1,310 to $1,350 each. Assuming the maximum premium, an attendee could have earned a $610 bounty for purchasing and immediately reselling ten coins.

There were at least two dealers who purchased about 200 coins each, but the largest buyer was Bob Lecce of Robert B. Lecce Numismatist Inc. (http://rareusgold.com) who purchased more than 500 coins. Bob was willing to answer a few questions about his purchase.

Since the US Mint raised the order limit, total sales of the UHR Double Eagle have risen from about 71,000 to more than 80,000 in the past three weeks. The more coins the US Mint sells, the higher the final mintage of the coin will be. How do you think a higher mintage will impact the long term potential of the coins?

Bob: I believe the final mintage will not exceed 120,000 coins. This is still a relatively low mintage for what I believe is the most popular and beautiful Modern coin the US Mint has produced to date. The mintage could be much lower if the Mint begins to produce Bullion Gold and Proof Gold Eagles for 2009. Time is running out for the production of 2009 coins. Any time now the Mint could increase the price to $1339 if the average price of Gold remains above $950 for a week based on their newly adopted pricing schedule. I strongly believe the price of Gold will be much higher through 2009 and continue into 2010 and insure a higher base value for these little gems.

I feel an additional 20,000 or 30,000 coins will not impact the long term potential of the UHR's. These coins are popular world wide. We are exporting many of the to Germany, China, and Japan.

What are your immediate and long term plans for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles that you purchased at the World’s Fair of Money?

Bob: I plan to continue creating a two way market in these for the near and long term. These coins are an excellent value now with MS69's trading at $1375-$1400 and MS70's at $1700-$1750.

Do you plan to continue acquiring more UHR Double Eagles before the end of the year?

Bob: I have continued to restock and be the strongest buyer in this market. I plan to increase my position to over 2,000 coins for a major marketing plan that I am developing.

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2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Sale Figures

Sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin jumped to their highest level in months. The increase comes as a result of three potential factors, the most significant being the increase of the household ordering limit.

For the past several months, the UHR Double Eagle has been selling fewer than 1,000 coins per week. The pace of sales had settled into this steady, but restrained pace after a frantic opening weekend in late January, when the US Mint had sold more than 40,000 coins.

For the most recent weekly reporting period, the UHR recorded sales of 3,799 coins. This was up more than 300% from the sales level of the prior week.

The table below displays the weekly sales stats since July as reported by Numismaster. The first column shows the cumulative sales total for each reporting period and the second column showing the incremental sales increase for each period.

2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Sales
Date	Total Sales	Increase
July 2	68,114	941
July 8	68,886	772
July 15	69,517	631
July 22	70,395	878
July 29	71,250	855
August 6	75,049	3,799

There were three factors driving the big jump in sales for the prior week. First, the United States Mint raised the ordering limit on the coin from only one per household to ten per household. This change likely unleashed some pent up demand from collectors who have been waiting to purchase additional coins beyond their one per household allocation.

Second, the price of gold has been moving higher. On Thursday of last week, the price touched a two month high when gold moved above $970 per ounce. Under the US Mint's pricing policy, the price of the UHR is increased if the average weekly London Fix gold price moves across certain levels. By my calculation, last week the coin just narrowly missed a price increase. Collectors may have accelerated purchases since a price increase seemed likely.

Third, the increased sales might be partially attributable to the US Mint's new internet advertising campaign for the coin. To the best of my knowledge this seems to be something that they started using recently, if not within the last week.

The US Mint has stated that the mintage of the UHR Double Eagle will be "unlimited for one year." Under the authorization received from the US Secretary of the Treasury, the coins may only be minted during 2009, however sales "may continue into 2010 if inventory exists." This means that if the US Mint's final production run in 2009 does not sell out by the end of the year, they do have authority to continue selling the coins into the following year until the coins sell out.

At this point, it seems likely that the UHR Double Eagle will have a final mintage above 100,000. Collectors have been looking at the potential final mintage of the coin as one of the several factors which will determine whether the coins have potential for price appreciation down the line. The last one ounce gold coin produced for collectors to sell more than 100,000 coins was the 2006 Proof Gold Buffalo Coin.

Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin Ordering Limits to Rise

More than six months after the initial launch, the US Mint will finally raise the ordering limits for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin. Starting on July 27, the ordering limit will be increased from one coin per household to ten coins per household.

The one per household ordering limit has been in place since the coins first went on sale with the continual message that the limit would be "re-evaluated on a weekly basis."

The UHR Double Eagle had gone on sale on January 22, 2009 with much fanfare. The coins were priced at $1,189.00 with an ordering limit of one coin per household. In the first few days of sales, more than 40,000 coins were sold.

In the ensuing months, the pace of sales slowed considerably. As of July 15, 2009, the US Mint has sold 69,517 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins. For the past several months, the US Mint has typically sold fewer than 1,000 coins per week.

During the six months of sales, the price of the coin has fluctuated. Under the US Mint's pricing policy for numismatic gold coins, prices can be adjusted weekly if the average price of gold moves across cerain threshholds. The price of the UHR Double Eagle has ranged from the initial offering price of $1,189 to a high of $1,339.

The secondary market has continued to support premium prices for UHR Double Eagles available in hand. These premiums are at least partially attributable to the low ordering limit and the potential for shipping delays. Recently completed eBay auctions still show uncertified coins selling for $1,400 to $1,500 each ($100 to $200 above the current US Mint price) with graded examples selling for even more. View current eBay auctions.

Lifting the ordering limit will no doubt have some interesting impacts. Prices on the secondary market may finally decline, particularly for uncertified coins. Collectors will be able to purchase coins directly from the US Mint in larger quantities. This will satisfy some of the demand for coins and also create a more accessible source for resellers.

Weekly sales will likely see a boost, although the effect might be tapered by the current price of gold. The coins are currently priced at $1,289, which is at the high end of the price range for the coins during the six month offering period.

One final thing worth mentioning- raising the household limit is another sign that the US Mint is finally getting a handle on their precious metals blank supply. Long awaited collector coins and some of the hold out bullion coins will hopefully be appearing soon.

Prices Decline for Ultra High Relief Gold Double Eagles

Although the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins remain available directly from the US Mint, some collectors purchase the coins on the secondary market. In recent weeks, these secondary market prices have been declining.

The US Mint has sold the coins for prices ranging from $1,189 to $1,339. Under the current pricing policy, the prices for numismatic gold products can be adjusted weekly in response to changes in the underlying market price of gold. The US Mint's current price for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle is $1,239.

On the secondary market, the largest price decline has taken place for coins graded MS70 by PCGS or NGC. Back in March, I examined the apparent high ratio of UHR Double Eagles grading MS70. This high ratio has continued, with grading data from PCGS and NGC showing roughly two-thirds of coins grading MS70. With so many coins receiving the highest possible grade, the prices for these "perfect" coins has fallen.

Based on a review of this week's completed eBay auctions, 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins graded PCGS MS70 have sold within a range of $1,725 to $2,000. Coins with the often controversial "First Strike" designation sold within a higher range of $2,075 to $2,300. When I reviewed prices in mid-March, PCGS MS70 coins were selling within a range of $2,650 to $3,500.

The Ultra High Relief coins graded NGC MS 70 have sold within a range of $1,883 to $2,000. Back in mid-March, NGC MS 70 coins were selling from $2,400 to $3,000.

View current auctions for MS70 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles.

The prices for ungraded or "raw" coins have also declined. This week's completely eBay auctions show prices ranging from a low of $1,325 to a high of $1,550. As recently as mid-April, the coins were selling within a higher range of $1,500 to $1,650. The recent low price of $1,325 is actually below one of the prices that had been in place at the US Mint.

View current auctions for uncertified 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles.

In my opinion, it never made much sense for these uncertified coins to sell at such high premiums while they still remained available directly from the United States Mint. The secondary market premiums existed due to the US Mint's one per household ordering limit and the potential for a long wait for delivery. People were willing to pay significant premiums to buy an additional coin and/or buy a coin for immediate delivery.

The US Mint now seems to be delivering the coins more quickly. I saw one report of a customer who ordered the coin and received it within one week. This may be an isolated case, but shipping is definitely not taking the six to nine months that was initially feared. The only factor still supporting secondary market premiums for raw coins is US Mint's one per household ordering limit. If and when the ordering limit is raised or removed, I think there will likely be further declines in secondary market prices.

While these short term fluctuations are always interesting to watch, prices for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins in the long term are still wide open. After the US Mint stops producing and selling the coins, another set of factors will serve to determine the eventual price of the coin. These factors include the final mintage, the distribution of the mintage, collector demand, and of course, the price of gold.

2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Household Limit

The 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins have been on sale at the US Mint for nearly 12 weeks. Even though the pace of sales has slowed significantly, the one per household ordering limit remains in place.

Sales of the Ultra High Relief began on January 22, 2009. The initial pace of sales was blazing fast, with over 40,000 coins sold in the first four days. After the initial rush, the pace of sales began to slow, as I examined in this previous post. The trend has continued, with only 491 coins sold in the prior one week reporting period.

A contributing factor to the slowing pace of sales may be the the current household limit which has been in place since the start of sales. Currently, only one coin may be ordered per household. Although there are definitely some people who have gotten around the limit by enlisting the help of friends or family, it does place an ultimate barrier on demand. With the latest weekly sales down roughly 99% from the first week's sales, is it time to remove the household limit?

Greg Hernandez, Acting Director of Public Affairs at the United States Mint provided the following statements:

We are closely monitoring sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin. At this time, the one per household limit is still in place, and we do not have a time frame for when the limit will be changed.

The purpose of the limit is to ensure that all members of the public have fair and equal access to United States Mint products.

The statements do not provide much in the way of new information, but the important thing is that removing or raising the household limit remains a possibility. In my opinion, the possibility becomes increasingly likely as the pace of sales continue to diminish. The household limit should be of interest to collectors, since it would likely squelch the booming secondary market that exists for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin.

A review of recently completed eBay auctions shows that uncertified examples of the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle are selling within a range of roughly $1,500 - $1,650. This compares to the current price at the US Mint price of $1,239. These coins carry no special distinction other than the fact that they are available for immediate purchase and delivery. (View recently completed eBay auctions.)

If the household ordering limit is raised or removed, I think the following scenario would take place: There would be an influx of orders from resellers or speculators who had previously sold the coins for a profit and believed that the premiums would continue. Once the US Mint started delivering these coins, there would be an influx of coins available on the secondary market. This influx would come at a time when buyers were finally able to purchase the coins directly from the US Mint in unrestricted quantities. This increase in supply and decrease in demand would cause secondary market prices to fall, bringing them down to the price level at the US Mint.

While it's possible that the household limit will remain in place for the rest of the year, I wouldn't count on it. If you are looking to purchase an additional Ultra High Relief Double Eagle, your best option might be to wait and see if there are any changes to the household limit before paying a premium on the secondary market.

The Slowing Pace of 2009 UHR Double Eagle Sales

Sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin started off strong, selling more than 40,000 coins in the first four days. Following the opening week, the pace of sales has experienced a sharp and continuing decline.

The table below presents the weekly sales figures reported by Numismaster. The last column shows the incremental increase from the prior report.

2009 Ultra High Relief Sales History
Date	Total Sales	Change
1/26/2009	40,727
2/8/2009	45,420	+4,693
2/16/2009	47,999	+2,579
2/22/2009	49,788	+1,789
3/1/2009	51,398	+1,610
3/9/2009	52,373	+975

Reasons behind the slowing pace of sales

After watching the pace of sales slow for the first few weeks, I thought that the increasing price of the coin may have been impacting sales. In accordance with the US Mint's new pricing policy, the price of the coin can be adjusted weekly in response to the changing price of gold. The price of the coin was adjusted upwards several times in the first weeks of offering. These increases may have caused some customers to delay placing orders until the price retreated. While the price increases may be a contributing factor, they are probably not the main driver. Last week, the price of the coin was reduced, but sales showed a sharper decline.

A bigger contributor to the slowing sales is probably the one per household limit, which has been in place since the start of sales. The US Mint has stated that they evaluate the limit weekly, but there has been no indication that the limit will be lifted or changed. Although some people have gotten around the limit by enlisting the help of friends and family, the household limit still puts an ultimate cap on orders.

A final potential contributor might be the numerous problems surrounding the offering, which may have put off some customers. Problems have included the initial blank supply, miscommunications on shipping dates, website security, shipping security, not following FIFO for shipping, and production problems for the companion book. With problems mounting, some may have decided to forgo or delay their order until the issues have been resolved.

Observations and Projections

One interesting observation is that for the last three out of four weeks, the 2009 Lincoln Commemorative Silver Dollars have outsold the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles. This is computed based on the dollar amount of sales for each offering. For much of the past year, the US Mint has heavily promoted the UHR Double Eagle. They have not very heavily promoted the Lincoln Commemorative. It's very interesting to see customers having basically the opposite reaction.

If the average pace of 2009 UHR Double Eagle sales manages to stay around the 1,000 coins per week level, this would put the final mintage around 90,000 coins. A lot can certainly happen to impact the pace of sales such as lifting the household limit or changes in the price of gold. Nonetheless, I think a mintage of less than 100,000 is possible.

An interesting point of reference is the 2006 Proof Gold Buffalo Coin. This was the first year for the new American Buffalo Gold Coins and the first time the US Mint struck coins in 24 karat gold. Similar to the UHR, it also featured a classic coin design. The 2006 Proof Gold Buffalo was priced at $800 when gold was at $583.10 and had a household limit of ten. The US Mint sold over 250,000 coins.

Before the UHR was launched, I thought we might see a similar final mintage. Now the possibility seems remote.

Most 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles Grading MS70?

Although there have been some reports of damaged or flawed 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins, the vast majority seem to be arriving in excellent condition. It also seems that the majority of coins sent to PCGS or NGC for grading are coming back MS70.

I just reviewed the PCGS and NGC graded 2009 UHR's listed on eBay and was surprised by the high proportion of MS70 graded coins. While this might not be indicative of the overall population of graded and ungraded coins, it seems to suggest that most of the UHR Double Eagles being received are beautiful high grade coins-- or "perfect" MS70 coins in the eyes of the major grading companies.

At the time of writing this post, there were 13 PCGS graded 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles listed on eBay. A total of 11 out of 13 coins were graded PCGS MS70. Searching completed auctions finds another 11 coins. From this batch 11 out of 11 were graded PCGS MS70. These coins all carry the (sometimes controversial) "First Strike" designation. This designation is available for coins submitted to PCGS within the first 30 days of release.

The UHR Double Eagles graded PCGS MS70 have sold for prices from $2,650 to $3,500. The first UHR graded by PCGS, which was mentioned in several print publications seems to have sold for a best offer of $10,000. View the current eBay auctions for UHR's graded PCGS MS70.

On the other side of the field, there were 15 UHR's graded by NGC listed on eBay. A total of 12 out of 15 were graded NGC MS 70. Each coin carried the "Early Releases" designation. Completed auctions find another 8 NGC graded UHR's with 7 out of 8 graded NGC MS 70.

The UHR Double Eagles graded NGC MS 70 have sold for prices from $2,400 to $3,000. View the current eBay auctions for UHR's graded NGC MS70.

From all of the above data, there were 41 out of 47 coins received the highest grade of MS70. As mentioned, this is a very high proportion of MS70's.

It is possible that people who had their graded and received MS70's were tempted to sell the coins immediately since they saw the high prices being paid. People who had their coins graded and received MS69's may have been less tempted and kept the coins. This would distort the ratio of MS70 graded coins on the market.

It's also possible that the US Mint took extra care producing and handling the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins, creating a high percentage of "perfect" coins. As suggested by a comment on a previous post, I have put together a survey to try to gauge the condition of coins being received by readers.


The poll is closed. Someone thought it was clever to vote unacceptable 94 times in a row.

The responses for the above survey are intentionally worded as general descriptions, so everyone can provide a response. If you want to provide more details on your coin, feel free to leave your comments below or on Coin Network.

More UHR Double Eagles Arriving

More collectors are reporting that their 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coins have arrived or are shipping. This now includes collectors who placed the orders on the first day of sales.

Although the US Mint has stated that orders would be shipped on a "first-come, first-served" basis, it's still not clear whether there is any rhyme or reason to their shipping. Over the weekend, I wrote a post regarding the order of shipments and included a survey to try to determine which customers were receiving their coins. I closed the survey this morning and present the results below.

	Total	Received Coin	Percent
Ordered in the first hour	245	20	8.16%
Ordered after the first hour, but in first day	163	7	4.29%
Ordered on the second day	23	13	56.52%
Ordered after the second day	30	10	33.33%

	Dates Coin Received
Ordered in the first hour	2/9, 2/11, 2/25, 2/26, 2/27, 3/2 (5), 3/3 (9)
Ordered after the first hour, but in first day	2/25 (3), 2/26, 2/27 (2), 3/3
Ordered on the second day	2/25, 2/26, 2/27 (6), 2/28, 3/2
Ordered after the second day	2/27 (3), 2/28 (2), 3/2 (5)

Based on this survey, a much greater percentage of people who ordered their coins on the second day or after the second day have received their coins than people who ordered in the first hour or first day. This trend is starting to reverse as more people who ordered within the first hour are finally receiving their coins. Of the twenty people in the "first hour" category who received coins, 14 of them were received in the past two days.

Based on the data and the dates reported, we can try to reverse engineer what may have happened. Initially, customers who ordered coins first were receiving coins first. This is supported by the 2/9 and 2/11 receipt dates for customers who placed orders in the first hour. No customers who ordered after the first hour reported receipt dates this early.

After a two week lapse, shipping resumed but coins were shipped to customers across every category, most heavily for the "second day" and "after the second day" categories. Ironically, this took place after the US Mint's email which specifically stated that coins would be shipped on a first-come, first-served basis.

Also of note, customers receiving their coins over the past few days are still reporting that UPS is dropping the packages on their doorsteps with no signature requirement.

As more collectors have their Ultra High Relief Double Eagles in hand, some of the negativity about the US Mint seems to be subsiding. However, I don't think waiting for the coins was what upset most people-- from the outset customers were warned that it might take six to nine months to deliver. What upset customers was the barrage of emails providing conflicting shipping dates, shipment and website security issues, the inability to get satisfactory answers by phone, and the overall lack of communication.

The US Mint might see a temporary respite from customer complaints because they have shipped their coins, but they have not really addressed the underlying issues and broader issues which caused most of the recent problems. When I wrote the post Message to the US Mint: Your Customers Are Not Happy, I intentionally tried to play up these larger issues which have not gone away in the least.

Ultra High Relief Double Eagles- Not Shipping FIFO?

There have been more reports of customers receiving their 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Coins. However, the collectors receiving coins are not necessarily the ones who placed their orders the earliest.

According to the US Mint's email notification sent out earlier this week, orders should be shipping on a "first-come, first-served basis." This means that customers who ordered their coins first, should be receiving their coins first. (i.e. "First in-First out" or FIFO)

Based on reports from Mint News Blog readers, and comments on other coin sites and forums, this is clearly not happening. Some customers who ordered on the second or third day are reporting that they have received their coins. Other customers who ordered within the first hour still have not received their coins. I placed my order at 12:17 PM ET on the first day of sales and have still not received my coin or any notification of shipping.

In an attempt to quantify what is happening. Please take a moment to answer a survey. The survey asks what date you ordered the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle, whether you have received it, and if you have, the date you received it. Results are tracked separately based on order date. You can respond to the survey more than once if you have ordered more than one coin. All responses are kept anonymous. Results will be posted on Mint News Blog next week. Please ask anyone else you know who ordered the UHR to complete the survey.

Survey Closed on 3/4/09: view the results here.

Some US Mint customers are justifiably upset with their experience ordering the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle. Problems have plagued nearly every aspect of the offering. This included initial difficulties obtaining sufficient blanks to manufacture coins, a series of miscommunications to customers on shipping dates, website security issues, shipping security issues, production problems with the companion book, and the latest non-FIFO shipping.

The US Mint began building enthusiasm for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle as early as March 2008 calling it the recreation of the "nation's most beautiful coin." Later, US Mint Director Edmund Moy made even loftier statements about the coin. He said "One hundred years from now, I hope that people will reflect on this coin and say this was the beginning of the next renaissance of American coinage." He has even called it "arguably one of the best coins ever made in the world throughout all of history."

When you make claims of this nature, make sure you are able to deliver.

Ultra High Relief Email Notification

The following message is being sent by email to US Mint customers who ordered the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin.

Another version of this message has been posted in the FAQ section of the US Mint's website. The email is silent with regards to the previous series of emails sent to customers which included ever-changing estimated shipping dates. The email is also silent regarding shipping problems and security problems recently exposed on other sites and print publications. The email also states that they are resuming shipping, although they never broadly informed customers that shipping was being halted.

For anyone who has not received it yet, here is the email in its entirety:

Re: Order Number xxxxxxxx

Dear Customer,

The United States Mint is pleased to announce that we will resume shipping of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin during the week of February 22, 2009. However, because of production problems with the Companion Book, you may receive only the COIN and presentation box at this time. If you are a customer who receives the COIN without the Companion Book, we will ship the Companion Book to you, at no extra charge, when it becomes available.

If you ordered your 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin between January 22, 2009, and February 9, 2009, you are under the 30-day return policy. If you ordered on or after February 10, 2009, you are under the seven-day return policy. The return timeframe for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold COIN and presentation box will begin on the date you receive it. If you are dissatisfied for any reason with your 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold COIN, you may send it back to the United States Mint within the applicable return period for a full refund or replacement. If you return your COIN for any reason prior to receiving the Companion Book, we will cancel your shipment of the Companion Book. If you receive the Companion Book within the applicable return period, you must return both for a full refund.

If your Companion Book is shipped separately, the exchange timeframe for it also will begin on the date you receive it and under the same return policy – 30 days or seven days – as applicable. We will make no refunds for the Companion Book; we will make exchanges for damages only.

Customers’ orders will be shipped on a first-come, first-served basis. You will be notified by email when your order has shipped. If you do not receive the Companion Book with your COIN, you will receive a second e-mail notification when we ship the Companion Book.If you ordered the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin between January 22 and February 23, 2009, we expect to ship it by April 24, 2009.

If you place your order for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin on or after February 24 (and up until March 24, 2009), we expect to ship it by May 24, 2009.

Thank you for your interest in United States Mint products.

The First 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Arrives

A member of Coin Network reports receiving the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin today!

Pictures of the coin were posted on Coin Network today February 9, 2009 at 12:03 PM. This is the earliest report of receiving the 2009 UHR that I have seen.

I have only seen one other report of the coin received in hand. There have been a few reports of credit cards being charged, which would indicate that coins have shipped. Many are continuing to report ever-fluctuating estimated shipping dates.

Some pictures of possibly the first 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold coin received (other than the US Mint and Smithsonian) are posted below. See more photos on the discussion thread.

Are 2009 UHR Double Eagles Shipping Today?

Anyone who has ordered the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin has most likely received one or more backorder emails accompanied by an ever shifting array of expected shipping dates. Is the long, confusing wait finally over?

My last post which provided an update on the 2009 UHR Double Eagles came after a backorder email received from the US Mint indicating an estimated shipping date of 2/18. Many readers responded in the comments with their estimated shipping dates which ranged from 2/17 to 2/20. Most of these were for coins ordered on the first day of sales.

Today, I started seeing reader comments mentioning that their status per the US Mint's online order tracking changed from "backordered" to "in stock and reserved" and the expected shipping date had changed to 02/06/2009, which is today.

I checked the status of my own order and saw the same 2/6 expected shipping date. You can check your own order status on the US Mint's website here.

Are the 2009 Ultra High Relief Gold Double Eagles finally shipping today? We should find out for sure, very soon.